Flash Flooding in Ohio, July 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON)...

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
CAPE HAS RISEN TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN THIRD WITH ABOUT
20 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR O-1KM SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWES THE REGION IN A MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA SO HEAVY
RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN A THREAT WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS WITH FLASH
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE CONFINED TO
WET MICRO DOWNBURT WINDS. AREA COVERAGE OF THE HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST NEAR TOL SO WL HOLD OFF ON A FF WATCH.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE MCV MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HEIGHTS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO RISE SO STABLE WARMING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.  GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.
POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CUT SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FROM YESTERDAYS THINKING AS HOT HUMID
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES WITH WESTERLIES
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.

THE HOTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER SO FAR ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ESPECIALLY
WEST OF CLE. A LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE IN THE
UPPER 80S BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL FEEL THE HEAT.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REACH SOUTH ENOUGH TO COOL THE REGION
SLIGHTLY ON WED BUT LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
BOUNDARY MAY CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND BRING SOME COOLING. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ABOUT MIDWEEK SO THE DETAILS ARE
UNCERTAIN. WITH HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK FAST MOVING ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAKS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
SOME POP UP STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS STILL A WEAK
CAP ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS KEEPING THE STORMS FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD. THE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL IS VERY LOW TODAY (<2500
FT)...WHICH IS CAUSING THE CLOUD BASES TODAY TO BE AROUND 2500 FT.
CANNNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN...BUT IN GENERAL AM
THINKING THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AHD OF THE STORMS OVER
INDIANA. AM THINKING THAT THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE FROM THE MCV OVR
NRN INDIANA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST AND BUILD SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WL BRING ALL SITES TO IFR
WITH TSRA AS THE STORMS MOVE THRU. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
BRING ANY POP UP STORMS INTO THE AREA TERMINALS EARLIER...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DRYING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...REL
AVIATION...MRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1234 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-151200-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
1234 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A CLEVELAND TO MILLERSBURG LINE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED AND
COULD CAUSE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE HAD FLOODING
PROBLEMS RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF WEATHER SO FAR THIS SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MRD