Damaging Wind in North Carolina, September 28, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE NC FOOTHILLS...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MANY OF THEM
ROTATING...ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY OF EASTERN
TN IN AN AREA OF STRONG PVA OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE LINE OVER
TN SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BEGINNING
IN A COUPLE HOURS...AND OUGHT TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
ABOUT 0300 UTC. A FEW OF THE CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
ALSO LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AND ROTATE. SOME OF THESE MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. IN FACT...A FEW LEGITIMATE
SUPERCELLS MAY EVEN DEVELOP. FORTUNATELY...THE LCL/S ARE QUITE HIGH
SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IS ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER ACROSS THE UPSTATE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
MIXING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S RIGHT NOW.

850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS ON THE
WRF...AND ARE EVEN WEAKER ON THE GFS. CONSIDERING THE WINDS I HAVE
IN THE GRIDS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN BREEZY SHOULD UNLOAD INTO THE
ZONES.

SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE TENN BORDER FRI
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BY AFTERNOON...AS THE SW TROUGH
MOVES RAPIDLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MNTNS/MOSTLY SUNNY PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS.

AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE OUR COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HOWEVER...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER STRONG SW TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS MAY
RESULT IN WARMER MIN TEMPS ON THE PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED (LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING).
HOWEVER...THE VALLEYS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DECOUPLING AND
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S SAT MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED VALLEY FROST AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING SW TROUGH WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELSAS USUAL...WITH THE GFS ONCE
AGAIN BEING FASTER THAN THE NAM. BASED ON MODEL PERFORMANCE SO FAR
THIS FALL...WILL SIDE WITH THE FASTER GFS. IT APPEARS THAT FORCING
WILL BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...SO WE HAVE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ADVERTISING CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SW TROUGH WILL TAKE THE EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE A WARMING TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY MONDAY...
AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS ADVERTISES
ANOTHER STRONG SW TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA/FAR NORTHEAST
CONUS DURING MID-WEEK...WHICH DRIVES ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF
SITES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL NC TAF SITES WHERE THE BEST
FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY
0300 UTC THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL
SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY
TURN OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND ANY SQUALL LINE THAT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY GO CALM OR EVEN
BACK TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE ACTUAL FROPA. THE
KAVL GFS MOS HAS BEEN TAKING THAT SITE WAY DOWN LATER TONIGHT WHICH
MAKES NO SENSE CONSIDERING THE MIXING THEY WILL HAVE. HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AS WINDS GO MORE OUT OF THE NNW
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY/LANE
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1210 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1210 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UPSTATE. SEE OUR PRODUCT
/CAESPSGSP/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
FROM BURNSVILLE TO NEWLAND...AND ALSO IN THE GREAT SMOKY AND
BALSAM MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

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