Hail in North Carolina, May 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1108 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WV SOUTH ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER...INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER...WITH MID 40S DEWPOINTS FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
WESTWARD...AS OPPOSED TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS. WV IMAGERY IMPLIES THE UPPER JET AXIS IS MORE OR LESS
RIGHT ON TOP OF THE AREA...AND ACCORDING TO MORNING U/A ANALYSIS IS
BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF MID/LEVEL DRYING WITH IT. THIS IS CREATING
SOME CONCERN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS THIS MORNING WILL BE TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...AS MODELS AGREE...AND ARE
SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THAT DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER IN THAT AREA. STILL...AS POTENT UPPER LOW SPINS CLOSE TO
THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRINGING H5 TEMPS IN THE -20 VICINITY WITH
IT...LAPSE RATES MAY BE STEEP ENOUGH TO EAK OUT SOME VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS PM...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
TOKEN LOW CHANCE POPS.

THE MAIN ACTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD YIELD CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN POPS AS IS IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE UPPER JET
AXIS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE
FOR SUPERCELLS...AND EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL ROTATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIMITED DUE TO VEERED SURFACE
FLOW (MARGINAL 0-1 KM HELICITY.) HOWEVER...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...AND WITH THE
UNUSUALLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...IT WON/T TAKE A VERY TALL UPDRAFT
(PROBABLY A 50 DBZ CORE UP TO AROUND 17 KFT) TO YIELD SEVERE
HAIL.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...DO NOT PLAN ANY
CHANGES OF CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN
MENTIONED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE OF SC...AND THE CLT METRO AREA
WILL REACH 15-25 MPH AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. I WILL POST A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 313 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
W/V SHOWS THE MID LEVEL JET RUNNING FROM MISSOURI SE TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. CWA WILL REMAIN IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING LONG LIVED TSRA CLUSTERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEVELOP A LEE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING AS FLOW TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND HEIGHTS FALL. NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL WAVE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KCLT SHOWS A CAPE GREATER THAN 2K J/KG...TOTAL
TOTALS 56...SWEAT GREATER THAN 450...AND A WBZ AROUND 8K FT. SEVERAL
STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND ALONG AND
EAST I-85 AND I-77 TODAY. I WILL ISSUE AN SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO HIGHLIGHT TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...H85 TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 10C AT 0Z MON TO 1C AT 12Z. I
USED A BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...WITH FAVOR GIVEN
TO THE COOLER SOLUTIONS. MTN TEMPS BY 12Z MON SHOULD RANGE FROM L40S
VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 30S ON THE PEAKS. NAM QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND I
WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE TN/NC STATE LINE FOR MAINLY SHRA. I WILL
INCLUDE A FEW PIXELS OF SHRASN FOR NRN MTN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 5K
FT.

MON AND TUES...CLOSED H5 LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NE AND DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS. I WILL FAVOR MTNS POPS
WITH JUST A FEW PERIODS OF SCT SHRA EAST. I WILL CONTINUE
FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

AVIATION...
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION AHEAD OF ONE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE...WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL LIE. RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCU ONCE AGAIN MAY
BECOME BROKEN TEMPORARILY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSH
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY...ENDING THE PRECIP
THREAT AND SHIFTING THE WIND TO A MORE NW DIRECTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM
     SUNDAY.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ066-069>072-082-507-509 UNTIL 6 PM
     SUNDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
536 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATES 85 AND 77 WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AREAS ABOVE 3000 FEET...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW TO
MID 30S TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             4 SW CORNWELL           34.57N 81.23W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       CHESTER            SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL A LITTLE LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             GREAT FALLS             34.57N 80.90W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       CHESTER            SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HAIL             7 WNW VALE              35.58N 81.51W
05/14/2006  E1.75 INCH       BURKE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COMMS CENTER RELAYED REPORT OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF LINCOLN...BURKE...CLEVELAND...AND
            CATAWBA COUNTIES

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HAIL             5 ENE CASAR             35.54N 81.54W
05/14/2006  E1.75 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CLEVELAND COUNTY COMMS RELAYED REPORT OF GOLFBALL SIZE
            HAIL IN NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             5 E MAIDEN              35.58N 81.12W
05/14/2006  E2.00 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SPOTTER REPORTED TANGERINE SIZE HAIL CRACKED A WINDSHIELD
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 150 AND HIGHWAY 16

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             4 SW MOORESVILLE        35.54N 80.86W
05/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       IREDELL            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 21 AND I-77

&&

LANE