Tornado and Hail in Texas, May 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
111 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA WILL
BUILD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 20Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE STORMS, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 04-
06Z MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 09Z AT KDRT AND 14-15Z AT KAUS AND
KSAT. WINDS WILL BE NE/E NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 947 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006)

UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR SVR TSTM WATCH 349 VALID UNTIL 5 PM CDT.  UPPED
POPS A LITTLE FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
WHERE ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006)

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS BACKING INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE
FRONT. A CAPPING INVERSION HOLDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN DRY AIR THIS MORNING, BUT DEWPOINT ADVECTION OF
LOW 70S AND THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL EVENTUALLY WITHER THE CAP
AWAY BY MIDDAY TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL AREAS.

MODEL QPF POINTS TO THE PARCHED SW COUNTIES AS THE AREA MOST
LIKELY TO GET HEAVY RAINS. THUS A RUNOFF THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A 2 INCH DOWNPOUR OVER AN URBAN OR
FLASHY AREA.

THE WX MAIN THREAT IS SEVERE WEATHER FROM LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR TODAY
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOOSELY DEFINED DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DURING THE DAY. STORMS ARE SUGGESTED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EVENING. ELEVATED STORMS AND
HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN PLENTY STEEP.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN BECOMES A MORE STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN
BY LATE MONDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE DISAPPEARING WITH
THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION. THUS A PLEASANT SPRING DAY IS ON
TAP FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NERN US RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL ROTATE
NE WITH A GENERAL TROUGH LEFT BEHIND TO PRODUCE ANOTHER NW FLOW
PATTERN OVER TX LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAKE TAKE LONGER TO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN SINCE A DRY AIR REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE.
THERE IS ALSO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL COVER AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PART OF TX AND MODELS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH OF
THIS RIDGE. THUS SOME GHOST 10 POPS WERE LEFT TO FINISH OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WILL NOT STRAY FROM MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK UNTIL MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS FALL INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
505 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A MINOR THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS TODAY ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE
STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.