Tornado in South Carolina, May 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...STILL UNDER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350 UNTIL 00Z FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. NO
BIG DEVELOPMENTS OVER OUR CWA YET...LOOKS LIKE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAVE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE OTHER
VERY FAVORABLE FACTORS. PLUS MARINE LAYER MAY HAVE A HAND IN
LIMITING DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LATEST NAM
HINTS AT STRONGER DEVELOPMENTS LATER THIS EVENING AND WITH CONTINUED
STRONG SHEAR WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AT
SOME POINT THEN. FOR NOW LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS WE ARE IN FOR A BIT
OF A LULL. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF
GFS AND NAM NUMBERS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF EITHER.
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS KICKED OFF BY SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ON MONDAY FOR CHANCE POPS.
MORE SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU ON TUESDAY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT PRECIP TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH GFS
AND HAVE LEANED ON THIS GUIDANCE AS LONG RANGE HPC GRIDS WERE MOSTLY
MISSING TODAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BROAD LOW PRESSURE STAYS
WELL NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE RIDGE FLATTENS
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS TOP
OF FLATTENED RIDGE LEAVES OPEN POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z...BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY LIMITING
VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT BE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.MARINE...PG TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CF.
MIXING JUST ABOUT MAXED OUT NOW SO SPEEDS WILL NOT INC ALL THAT MUCH
AND SCA NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WILL ADVERTISE SCEC FOR ANOTHER PD OR
TWO. FETCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST HELPING TO KEEP SCA HEIGHT SEAS
OUTSIDE OF 20 NM THROUGH THE PD AS WELL. A VEER TO W ON TUE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUES. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ONLY SLOWLY LIFTS OUT BUT
SOME MORE ENERGY MOVES IN BEHIND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NRN GOMEX, KEEPING THE WINDS LOCALLY OUT OF THE WEST
FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MBB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-
039-046-150800-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-ROBESON-BLADEN-
PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
347 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG JET
STREAM DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

15

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