Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
905 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SEND IMPULSES OUR WAY...WHILE A
WEAKENING WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA....PROVIDING A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. THE POPS WILL BE RAISED OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS
AFFECTING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
BEARING DOWN FROM EAST TENNESSEE. ISOLATED FLOODING...HAIL AND
WIND GUST CONCERNS WILL LINGER UNTIL INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD CIRRUS DEBRIS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
KENTUCKY AND EAST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE ARE RUNNING A BIT
COOL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE LOWERED A DEGREE OR SO WHERE THE FORECAST WAS ABOVE
GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE KAVL AND KGSP AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 255 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING SCATTERED TSTM CVRG. LITTLE
CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING OF AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT.
MUCH LESS EVIDENCE EXISTS TONIGHT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO LAST PAST LATE EVENING GIVEN WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. DEEPER
LAYER RH DOES SLIP SE TOWARD THE NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK...BUT BASED ON THE WEAK MAGNITUDE OF 85H WINDS
THIS FAR EAST...WOULD DOUBT STORMS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WOULD
THREATEN THE NC MTNS...BUT WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN ALL NIGHT IN THE
WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL. AS STRONGER ENERGY TRANSLATES
SOUTHEAST ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE RESPONSE.
BASED ON THIS WILL BUMP UP PCPN CHANCES TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE. THE
COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG LLVL BNDRY AND 30 KT MID-LVL
FLOW SHAPING UP FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORM RELATIVE SHEAR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRI NGHT THRU SUN...
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY CONVECTION BY 00 UTC SAT...WITH SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING AFTER THAT TIME. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT AND THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WRF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THAN IS THE GFS...AND I/M GOING WITH A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION...SIMILAR TO WHAT MOST OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES ARE
DOING AS WELL.

THE WRF DEVELOPS A GOOD LOOKING DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE H7-H5 LAYER BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
DEFORMATION ZONE...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION...BUT IT SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC SAT. WHILE THERE WILL BE GOOD
LLVL UPSLOPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAD...THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING
SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PCPN ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE FAIR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
SEVERE THREAT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTN. LOWERED MAX
TEMPS INTO THE 70S IN THE NC ZONES...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER SAT. HOWEVER...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH.

THE WRF KEEPS THE H5 LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUN...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER
MODELS...AND I/LL END PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING AND KEEP
SUNDAY DRY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MECHANISM TO DRAIN THE
RESIDUAL CAD ON SUNDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY AUGUST SUN...AND I
SUSPECT THAT WE WILL HOLD ON TO CLOUDS MUCH LONGER THAN IS IMPLIED
IN THE GRIDS.

SUN NGHT THRU THU...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING IN THE EXTENDED. DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS MON.
A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUE...BRINGING LOW CHANCE POPS
TO THE MTNS...WITH DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING WED AND THU.

AVIATION...
UNTIL DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CAN BE CONCLUSIVELY DISCERNED...WILL
NOT FCST CONDITIONS WORSE THAN VCTS/CB THIS UNTIL ABOUT MID-EVENING.
DESPITE WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...WILL PLAN ON MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH TEMPO IFR AT KAVL. PRETTY SOLID SHOWER/TSTM
CVRG LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...AND WILL INTRODUCE VCSH CHANCES FOR KAVL/KHKY IN THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WHERE DEEP LAYER RH ARRIVES FIRST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-110815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
403 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TORRENTIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW FOUNTAIN INN       34.63N 82.28W
08/10/2006                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CANEBRAKE FD REPORTS 2-3 TREE LIMBS...2 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER...DOWN ON TERRY ROAD SW OF FOUNTAIN INN.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

SCZ012-102145-
LAURENS-
442 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING LAURENS COUNTY...

AT 439 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LAURENS TO WARE SHOALS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CLINTON BY 500 PM EDT.
  JOANNA BY 520 PM EDT.
  CROSS HILL BY 525 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW DONALDS            34.39N 82.36W
08/10/2006                   ABBEVILLE          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS ONE TREE DOWN ALONG MARTIN ROAD...JUST OFF
            OF HIGHWAY 178.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-110000-
ALEXANDER-CABARRUS-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
EASTERN POLK-GASTON-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-UNION-
644 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 640 PM...STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM MORGANTON...TO
MAIDEN...TO STATESVILLE AND SALISBURY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING TO
THE SOUTH ABOUT 15 MPH. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH TO A RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE AND CONCORD LINE BY 8 PM. ONE OR TWO OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND OF AT LEAST 60 MPH AND PENNY
SIZE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
852 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HAIL             CANDLER                 35.54N 82.69W
08/10/2006  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

0849 PM     HAIL             CANDLER                 35.54N 82.69W
08/10/2006  E0.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 151 AND PATTON.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

NCZ082-SCZ008-009-013-014-110200-
CHEROKEE-CHESTER-UNION-YORK-
903 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UPSTATE...

AT 903 PM...STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING INTO UNION COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA AND CHEROKEE AND YORK COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH ABOUT 25 MPH. STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO CHESTER AND POSSIBLY UNION COUNTIES BY 10 MPH. ONE OR TWO OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND OF AT LEAST 60 MPH AND PENNY
SIZE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

RWH