Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Indiana, August 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 EDT THU AUG 10 2006

.AVIATIONS...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ISOLATED SHRA
FOUND ACRS THE FA. FIRST PROBLEM WL BE FOG. DAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH
WIDESPREAD FIR VISIBILITIES BUT THESE SHUD MIX OUT TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z OR SO AND FINALLY TO VFR VISBIES BY 17Z-18Z AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES.

CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SCT TSRA GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN TIMING ON THE HEATING DRIVEN TSRA
BUT ATTM FEEL IT SHUD BE AFTER 18Z. WL USE VCTS FOR COVERAGE ATTM
AND PIN DOWN TIMING AS STORMS APPEAR IMMINENT. WL ALSO NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MCS OVR IA ALONG WITH IT/S PROPAGATION.

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT 07Z STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS COULD BE SEEN WITH DEWPOINT CONTRAST.  ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY A SHIFT IN THE WINDS WAS LOCATED ACROS NORTHERN IL.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. ALOFT AT H5 NW FLOW CONTINUED.

NAM SEEMS TO BE BETTER IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER INCONSISTENCY OF RUN TO RUN QPF AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME PUTS NAM IN QUESTION.  HAVE SIDED MORE WITH GFS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD...HOWEVER STILL THINK GFS MOVES PRECIP OUT A LITTLE
TOO FAST AND HAS PLACEMENT OF FRONT TOO FAR SOUTH.  GFS HAS MOVED
FRONT NORTH OF PREVIOUS LOCATION AND WITH THAT NOW CORRESPONDS
CLOSER TO THE NGM...BUT STILL FAR SOUTH OF INDIANA BY LATE FRIDAY
AND EARLY SATURDAY.

PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL IN FORECAST UNTIL 12Z WITH KGEZ AND KMIE
CURRENTLY AT 1/4SM AND KOKK AT 1/2SM AT 7Z.  CLOUD COVER IS
INCREASING AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF DEVELOPMENT AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PROGRESS WITH H8 JET OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER WL NOT SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

FOR TODAY...GFS...NAM...AND NGM ARE ALL INDICATING QPF AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WL MOVE ACROS INDIANA THEREFORE HAVE PUT POPS UP TO 50
ACROS THE AREA.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL ALSO STILL BE IN THE VICINITY
AND MODELS ALSO INDICATING FRONTOGENESIS OVER INDIANA WHICH WL HELP
IN PRECIP CHANCES TODAY.  AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.  LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AROUND
6...HOWEVER MODEL NEGATIVE LI VALUES AROUND -10 ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.  HAVE LEFT SEVERE WORDING OUT OF GRIDS...BUT
WL MENTION IN HWO.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH SUNSHINE THE AREA WL GET.

TONIGHT...HAVE 50 POPS IN SW TO 30 POPS NE WITH SW CLOSER TO FRONAL
BOUNDARY AND FRONTOGENESIS.  ONGOING PRECIP FROM DAY WL SHIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS PROBLEMS BUILDING INTO OUR AREA
AND INSTEAD BUILDS FURTHER EAST OF HERE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN
FORECAST.  HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN MAINLY UPPER 60S WITH CLOUD COVER.

ON FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.  NAM
STILL HAS PLACEMENT OF FRONT JUST SOUTH OF CWA AND WITH THIS AND THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE HAVE NOT DISCOUNTED POPS FOR FRIDAY.  NAM TRIES TO
KEEP FRONT AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER HAVE KEPT POPS OUT FOR NOW
AND WENT CLOSER TO GFS.  COOLER AIR WL BEGIN TO FILTER IN BY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY A H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND
AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.  SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
EXPECTED.  WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TEMEPRATURES.  A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES GET EARLY THIS MORNING.
KGEZ AND KBMG HAVE BEEN DOWN TO A HALF MILE VISIBILITY AT TIMES
WHILE OTHER TAF SITES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY MVFR SO FAR. CLOUDS FROM 5
THOUSANT TO 10 THOUSAND FEET WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THIS MAY LIMIT THE FOG ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KIND BY 09Z AND ALL AREAS
BY 12Z. EVEN SO VISIBILITIES WILL PROBABLY DROP INTO THE FIR OR LOW
MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 13Z.

MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN BY MORNING AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THIS WAY. HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT AS WET AS
PREVIOUS RUNS.  AIR MASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. MODELS INDICATE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF BODY OF TAFS FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...AB/JS
AVIATION...PUMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
848 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-111300-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
748 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /848 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS A
THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CP