Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, August 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

.IN THE SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

WILL KEEP FOCUS ON CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9
PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY EXCEPT
FOR THE ROW OF COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE.

MAIN THREAT FROM EXPECTED STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS NOW IN IOWA...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN MISSOURI. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH INDIVIDUAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER STORMS. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY HIGH...WITH LIS
AS HIGH AS -10 BETWEEN LOUISVILLE AND PADUCAH.

THE INITIAL STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS REGION. THESE ARE FORMING BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. OTHER STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS ARE QUITE HIGH...AVERAGING OVER 2 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION WILL AVERAGE 20 MPH...ANY AREAS WITH REPEATED
OR TRAINING STORMS MAY SEE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TOWARDS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA TOMORROW.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY BRING IN DISTINCTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR.

JSD

IN THE EXTENDED(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL SHUTTLE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING
SWELLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING US FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN. AS A RESULT OF THESE
FACTORS THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BE MINIMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHOWN ADMIRABLE AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS REGARDING A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED THE FRONT UP A BIT...BUT
STILL BRING IT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...SIMILAR TO PAST RUNS. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY FOR A DRY MID-WEEK.

13

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM EDT.
IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM EDT.
&&

JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ029>043-045>049-055>057-067-111330-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
LINCOLN KY-
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /1230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT SHOULD LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ORGANIZED DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE BOW ECHOS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM INDIANAPOLIS THROUGH CINCINNATI MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THESE STORMS
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AFTER MID AFTERNOON...
AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

KYZ023>028-053-054-061>066-070>078-081-082-111330-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /1230 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT SHOULD LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS
POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED CONVECTION ACROSS INDIANA MOVES SOUTH.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT FROM ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1240 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-090>092-KYZ030>033-101930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE
1140 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /1240 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI THROUGH ILLINOIS TO INDIANA ARE EXPECTED
TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN IN PLACE BEFORE THE STORMS
ARRIVE KNOW WHERE TO SEEK SHELTER...IN INTERIOR ROOMS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS...AT HOME...WORK...AND SCHOOL. BEING PREPARED COULD SAVE
YOUR LIFE.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ076>079-084-090-092-KYZ032-033-102000-
CLARK-CRAWFORD-HARRISON-HENRY-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SCOTT-TRIMBLE-
WASHINGTON-
306 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING
CLARK...CRAWFORD...HARRISON...HENRY...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SCOTT...
TRIMBLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MADISON TO
PAOLI..MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR BEDFORD BY 340 PM EDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR VIENNA BY 315 PM EDT.
  NEAR SOUTH BOSTON BY 320 PM EDT.
  NEAR BUNKER HILL BY 325 PM EDT.
  NEAR VALEENE BY 330 PM EDT.
  NEAR BACON BY 335 PM EDT.
  NEAR OTISCO BY 340 PM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
16 AND 33.

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN
FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ083-102030-
DUBOIS IN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JASPER
230 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG STORMS HEADING FOR DUBOIS COUNTY...

STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF DUBOIS COUNTY BETWEEN 315 PM AND 415 PM CDT.
SEEK SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS ARRIVE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
354 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

KYZ036-037-102055-
HARRISON-SCOTT-
354 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SCOTT AND HARRISON OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OWENTON IN OWEN
COUNTY.  THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
125 AND 136.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JARVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

INZ090-KYZ025-028>030-102030-
BULLITT-HARDIN-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-MEADE-
355 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG GUST FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS JEFFERSON AND HARRISON
COUNTIES...

AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CORYDON TO
MIDDLETOWN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES WEST OF
LOUISVILLE TO 15 MILES EAST OF LOUISVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH. IT
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND INTO BULLITT...NORTHERN
HARDIN...AND MEADE COUNTIES BY 430 PM EDT.

PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH FROM THE
NORTH...WELL OUT AHEAD OF ANY RAINFALL.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...WILL ARRIVE LATER...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR PLEASURE RIDGE PARK BY 400 PM EDT.
  NEAR VALLEY STATION BY 405 PM EDT.
  NEAR SHEPHERDSVILLE BY 415 PM EDT.
  NEAR WEST POINT BY 420 PM EDT.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JSD