Hail in North Carolina, August 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURING SCATTERED TSTM CVRG. LITTLE
CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING OF AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT.
MUCH LESS EVIDENCE EXISTS TONIGHT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO LAST PAST LATE EVENING GIVEN WESTERLY LLVL FLOW. DEEPER
LAYER RH DOES SLIP SE TOWARD THE NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITHIN
POTENTIAL MCS TRACK...BUT BASED ON THE WEAK MAGNITUDE OF 85H WINDS
THIS FAR EAST...WOULD DOUBT STORMS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WOULD
THREATEN THE NC MTNS...BUT WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN ALL NIGHT IN THE
WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER POTENTIAL. AS STRONGER ENERGY TRANSLATES
SOUTHEAST ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTIVE RESPONSE.
BASED ON THIS WILL BUMP UP PCPN CHANCES TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE. THE
COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG LLVL BNDRY AND 30 KT MID-LVL
FLOW SHAPING UP FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STORM RELATIVE SHEAR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRI NGHT THRU SUN...
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER
BY CONVECTION BY 00 UTC SAT...WITH SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING AFTER THAT TIME. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT AND THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WRF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THAN IS THE GFS...AND I/M GOING WITH A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION...SIMILAR TO WHAT MOST OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES ARE
DOING AS WELL.

THE WRF DEVELOPS A GOOD LOOKING DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE H7-H5 LAYER BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
DEFORMATION ZONE...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION...BUT IT SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC SAT. WHILE THERE WILL BE GOOD
LLVL UPSLOPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAD...THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING
SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PCPN ALONG THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE FAIR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
SEVERE THREAT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTN. LOWERED MAX
TEMPS INTO THE 70S IN THE NC ZONES...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER SAT. HOWEVER...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH.

THE WRF KEEPS THE H5 LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUN...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER
MODELS...AND I/LL END PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING AND KEEP
SUNDAY DRY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MECHANISM TO DRAIN THE
RESIDUAL CAD ON SUNDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY AUGUST SUN...AND I
SUSPECT THAT WE WILL HOLD ON TO CLOUDS MUCH LONGER THAN IS IMPLIED
IN THE GRIDS.

SUN NGHT THRU THU...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING IN THE EXTENDED. DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS MON.
A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUE...BRINGING LOW CHANCE POPS
TO THE MTNS...WITH DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CAN BE CONCLUSIVELY DISCERNED...WILL
NOT FCST CONDITIONS WORSE THAN VCTS/CB THIS UNTIL ABOUT MID-EVENING.
DESPITE WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...WILL PLAN ON MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING
AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH TEMPO IFR AT KAVL. PRETTY SOLID SHOWER/TSTM
CVRG LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...AND WILL INTRODUCE VCSH CHANCES FOR KAVL/KHKY IN THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD WHERE DEEP LAYER RH ARRIVES FIRST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-110815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
403 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TORRENTIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1229 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MONROE             35.02N 80.50W
08/09/2006                   UNION              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SMALL BUSINESS OWNER AND COUNTY OFFICALS REPORT MULTIPLE
            TREES DOWN BETWEEN HWY 601 AND MORGAN MILL ROAD.

&&

SKRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

SCZ011-101900-
ABBEVILLE-
203 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING ABBEVILLE COUNTY...

AT 154 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF LOWNDESVILLE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
ABBEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
RAINFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH PER HOUR.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

SCZ013-101930-
UNION-
227 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING UNION COUNTY...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITMIRE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
OF UNION...REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 AND
HIGH RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

SCZ001-004-101945-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING OCONEE COUNTY...

AT 248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SALEM...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALHALLA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
ALSO...HIGH RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.

SBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

SCZ006-010-102015-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-
314 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING ANDERSON AND GREENVILLE
COUNTIES...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO
POWDERSVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENVILLE TO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MAULDIN BY 325 PM EDT.
  PIEDMONT BY 335 PM EDT.
  WILLIAMSTON BY 350 PM EDT.
  SIMPSONVILLE BY 355 PM EDT.
  BELTON BY 400 PM EDT.
  FOUNTAIN INN BY 415 PM EDT.

WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

SBK