Damaging Wind in New York, June 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #509 VALID
THROUGH 22Z (6PM EDT) FOR ENTIRE FA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 932 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006/

..TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
EXPECTING SVR WEATHER OPERATIONS TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING AT 1320Z FROM FAR WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO ELM WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NEWD AS PBL
DESTABILIZES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST...NEWD AT 35 KTS WITH
STRONGER LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS MOVING UP TO 45 KTS AT TIMES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SWLY FLOW...MOVING INTO FAR WRN NY AT
13Z...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SCT/WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR
PROFILES AND SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG...STORMS
SHOULD BECOME SEVERE BY 16Z ACROSS OUR NRN NY ZONES...AND MOVE
INTO VT BY MID AFTN. MID-LEVEL /700-500MB/ LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL...ONLY AROUND 6 C/KM. THUS...CONDITIONS SUPPORT DAMAGING
WINDS MORE THAN LARGE HAIL...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH EVOLVING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY.

RSO HAS BEEN REQUESTED THROUGH 23Z. FIRST RSO IMAGES LIKELY AROUND
14Z.

ZONES/GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 451 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLR ACRS FA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE REMAIN UNDER
INFLUENCE OF H5 RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVG EAST OF FA THIS
MORNING HOWEVER. LATEST STLT PICS SHOW SHRTWV TROF LIFTING NEWRD
ACRS GRTLKS/OH VLY...ASSOCD WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROF. THIS SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACRS FA LATER AM/PM BRINGING SHWRS/TSTRMS TO
FA. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB
QUICKLY...REACHING THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN
LATER AM/PM. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DWPTS IN M-U 60S WILL ALLOW
FOR ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT TO
OCCUR. CAPES EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-200 J/KG...WITH GREATEST
INSTABILITY FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST. STG TO POTENTIALLY SVR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT WILL BE ASSISTED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCD WITH
SHRTWV TROF. SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS. EXPECT A LINE OF
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACRS NRN NYS/SRN CANADA LATER THIS MORNING AND
THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 30 TO 40 KTS ACRS VT THIS PM. PRIMARY
THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO WIND DAMAGE DUE PSBL BOW ECHO. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOT ALL THAT HIGH. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH WB ZERO
INDICATES RISK OF DAMAGING HAIL NOT AS GREAT AS RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. EXPECT MUCH OF CONVECTION TDY DURING A 2-4 HR PERIOD...MAINLY
FROM 15-18Z IN NRN NY...AND 18-22Z IN VT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATER PM/EVENING.

ONCE SHWRS/STORMS EXIT RGN EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT MUCH OF
TONGHT TO BE DRY. THERE IS A CHC OF SHWRS LATE TONIGHT
HOWEVER...MAINLY WRN ZONES...WITH APRCH OF NEXT SHWRTWV AND ASSOCD
CDFNT. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT DUE HIGH LLVL MSTR AND
LIGHT WINDS.

DURING TUESDAY...DIGGING SHRTWV AND ASSOCD CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS FA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTRMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PM.
SIGNATURES FOR SEVERE NOT AS STG AS TDY. WIND FIELD
WEAKER...INSTABILITY MARGINAL. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH SFC FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
TSTRM DVLPMNT THOUGH...MAINLY FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST.

RISK OF SHRA/TSRA DIMINISHES TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WX TO FA ON WED.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FCST ATTM. ZONAL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THURS INTO SAT. SERIES OF SHRTWVS WILL BRING A CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTRMS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WX TO RGN FOR SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...PRIMARY FCST CONCERN/CHALLENGE TODAY IS
ARRIVAL OF POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS AREA LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT ESP THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN...FOR
THE MOST PART VFR CONDS AREA WIDE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THOUGH SOME
MVFR CONDS IN HZ POSSBL THROUGH SUNRISE. BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOC CONVECTION TO ARRIVE ACROSS NRN NY BTWN
15-18Z...AND VT FROM 18-21Z AND WILL TIME ACCORDINGLY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSBL WITH STRONGEST CELLS. THEN SENSIBLE CONDS
IMPROVING BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS CONVECTION EXITS
EAST AND SKIES BECOME GENERALLY PTLY CLOUDY. WITH WET GROUND CONDS
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE SOME
PATCHY BR AREA WIDE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BANACOS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-200800-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
359 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...AND PUSH
QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO VERMONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

JMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1020 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-192030-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
1020 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK BY NOON...AND SPREAD RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG WINDS
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTION
AND PREPARE FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY.

BANACOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1050 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-192200-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
1050 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT...

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING A SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY NOON TODAY...AND BE LOCATED IN THE ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN
NOON AND 2 PM...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 3 PM. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TAKE SHELTER AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO
TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

TABER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006 NYZ029-030-034-191745-

AT 1236 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WANAKENA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR HORSESHOE LAKE BY 100 PM AND NEAR
TAHAWUS BY 140 PM. THESE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.

TABER