Flash Flood and Hail in Indiana, June 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

AVIATION...FOR 191200Z TAFS...SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF STRATUS
COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME AREAS OF FOG ALSO REPORTED
WITH KIND AND KLAF BRIEFLY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WITH GOOD
MIXING STRATUS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING.  A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE SO
THUNDERSTORMS SO SCATTERED WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.  AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES BY...CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME
DRYING TO OCCUR AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS NUMEROUS AS
YESTERDAY.  ONLY SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON CHANCES OF PRECIP
NEARLY EVERY DAY AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS TODAY.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THRU EASTERN IOWA AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...STOUT HEAT RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN ON WV LOOP OVER MINNESOTA.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEMS WAS QUITE SIMILAR IN THE FIRST FEW
DAYS. MOS GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY CLOSE...AND A BLEND WAS USED EXCEPT
AS NOTED.

TODAY...INDIANA WILL START OUT THE DAY REMAINING IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG VORT
MAX WILL BE DESCENDING INTO THIS TROUGH EARLY TODAY. HAVE LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF PRECIP OVER IOWA
CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX. BY
AFTERNOON THE PICTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING HOWEVER.

AFTER 18Z...VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE LOOKS WARRANTED.
FIRST...THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 65 DEGREES AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. SOME AFTERNOON DRYING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED BUT SHOULD REMAIN DECENT ML CAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...GOOD LAPSE RATES EXPECTED AS EARLY
SUN SHOULD LET TEMPS WARM INTO MID 80S. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE THE OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE. 0-6 KM
BULK WIND SHEAR OF 40 KTS...THOUGH PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...WITH BOTH
WIND AND HAIL THREATS EXISTING. PLAN TO HILIGHT IN THE HWO.

MAV POPS SEEM TOO LOW THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN ABOVEMENTIONED FACTORS.
LEANED CLOSER TO MET POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD KILL STORMS QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT PASSING AND HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN. FELT THAT THE MAV NUMBERS WERE A BIT TOO WARM
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE HIGH BUILDING
IN...THINK THAT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SHOWN BY MET MOS IS BETTER.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT
THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND FORCE SOME PRECIP THIS WAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A VERY
STRONG PLUME OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION NOTED AT H85 THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TO OUR WEST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS
HERE HOWEVER UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THINK THAT THERE SHOULD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FOR PRECIP TO OVERCOME WITH RIDGING FROM
SFC TO H5. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
H8 TEMPS ABOUT +16C FOR A MIX TO MID 80S...CONSISTENT WITH MOS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...INDIANA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
H5 RIDGE WHICH BECOMES BROAD AND FLAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CONUS. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US OPEN FOR MCS IMPACTS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE FIRST ONE APPEARS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. A STRONG LLJ OF 30-
50 KTS IS NOTED WITH POWERFUL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. THE GFS
APPEARS TO GET TAINTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
KEEPS ITS MCS NORTH OF OUR AREA. AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND
LOW END CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM. LOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEAT IS ON. H5 RIDGE IN
PLACE...WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C YIELDING A MIX TO LOW 90S. MET
MOS SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM HERE AS THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS EARLY AND THEN EXPECTING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
INTERFERE WITH FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WARM AIRMASS. MAV MOS TEMPS
AROUND 90 LOOKED BETTER. MOS IS CONSISTENT ON PUSHING SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 70S...WILL TREND THAT DIRECTION. THIS WOULD
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX IN THE MID 90S WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH WARM AND HUMID SFC AIRMASS PLUS A VORT MAX
RUNNING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEW MCS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
PERHAPS IMPACTING OUR AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AM. LOWS TO REMAIN IN
THE 60S WITH CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS.

EXTENDED...NO CHANGES WERE MADE. CONTINUED HOT THRU WEEKEND...THEN
EXPECTING A COOL DOWN WITH A VERY STRONG H5 TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. GOING FORECAST HANDLED IT WELL.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JEH
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
445 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...CORRECT TYPO IN SPOTTER STATEMENT...

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-200845-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
345 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 /445 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AFTER 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT)
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY THREATS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO KNOW MANY
DETAILS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE DAY THAT STORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT) THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

LJ/PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SSW CRAWFORDSVILLE   39.91N 86.97W
06/18/2006                   MONTGOMERY         IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADVANCE                 40.00N 86.62W
06/18/2006                   BOONE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MECCA                   39.73N 87.33W
06/18/2006                   PARKE              IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCADIA                 40.17N 86.02W
06/18/2006                   HAMILTON           IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BAINBRIDGE         39.78N 86.78W
06/18/2006                   PUTNAM             IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MECCA                   39.73N 87.33W
06/18/2006                   PARKE              IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SSW CRAWFORDSVILLE   39.91N 86.97W
06/18/2006                   MONTGOMERY         IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADVANCE                 40.00N 86.62W
06/18/2006                   BOONE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCADIA                 40.17N 86.02W
06/18/2006                   HAMILTON           IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BAINBRIDGE         39.78N 86.78W
06/18/2006                   PUTNAM             IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

DTUCEK