Flooding in New Hampshire, May 13 to 18, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
835 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...VERY BUSY
WITH HYDRO.

BANDS OF +RA HAVE SHIFTED INTO YORK COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE N AND
E THIS HOUR. VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY N AND E
ALONG A MOISTURE BAND THAT EXTENDS WELL OUT INTO THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO THE MAY, 1989 SYSTEM THAT
DROPPED 5-6 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE AREA. THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE N THEN THE PAST SEVERAL MODELS SUITES
HAVE SUGGESTED.

THUNDERSTORMS NOW BEING DETECTED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL ADD THIS
TO THE UPDATE. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...WE ARE WORKING WITH THE RFC AT THIS TIME TO UPDATE RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS. ESSENTIALLY...VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WILL PRODUCE RISES LARGER THEN CURRENTLY FORECASTING. WE
WILL BE UPDATING THESE WARNINGS AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SMITH RIVER IN BRISTOL OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. OVERALL...THE GFS IS
PERFORMING WELL...WITH THE 18Z NAM COMING IN LINE. OVERALL...THE
EVENT IS WORKING OUT AS PLANNED...HOWEVER AXIS OF +RA HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT BANDS TO SETTLE BACK TO EXTREME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. BAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHRINK FROM
BOTH THE N AND S AS DRY AIR ATTEMPTS TO IMPINGE FROM THOSE DIRECTIONS.
&&

.RECORDS...PORTLAND AND CONCORDS ALL-TIME WETEST MAYS EVER MAY
FALL THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.COASTAL FLOOD THREAT...HAVE ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE
REGION SOUTH OF PORTLAND. THIS IS A RARE AND VERY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENT. COASTAL INUNDATION LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
SOME ESTUARIES AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS AND STREAMS. RAPID
RUNOFF WITH COMBINE WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION AND GUSTY NE WINDS TO
PRODUCED LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS. THIS OCCURRED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER A MUCH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE ALL OCCURRING WITH THE HIGH TIDE IN PORTLAND HARBOR
BELOW THE NORMAL 12 FOOT TIDAL FLOOD BENCHMARK. BEACH EROSION WILL
OCCUR. &&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL GALES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. RAIN
HAS ABOUT STOPPED OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS. MOST STORM TOTAL REPORTS IN THE RAIN BANDS ARE BETWEEN
2 AND 3 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED REPORTS ABOVE 4. THE SQUEEZE
PLAY WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE NAM IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE DRY AIR DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE DRY LINE FURTHER EAST AND WILL BE THE WAY WE WILL BE
GOING WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

MEANWHILE WE HAVE A FLOOD WATCH UP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NH AND
YORK COUNTY IN MAINE WHICH WE HAVE EXTENDED BY 12 HOURS TIL 7 PM
SUNDAY. WE HAVE A COUNTY FLOOD WARNING UP FOR SOUTHEAST 3 COUNTIES
OF NH THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO REPORTS OF WATER COVERING SOME
ROADWAYS. WE ALSO HAVE A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PEMIGEWASSET...SACO...PEMIGEWASSET AND SMITH RIVERS. WE ALSO HAVE
A STATEMENT OUT FOR POTENTIAL SPLASH OVER AT HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE
PAST FEW DAYS FINALLY SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AS A JET
STREAK MOVES TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN TO THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CUTOFF SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE
EAST TO REPLACE THIS ONE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MEAN MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH IFR IN RAIN IN
SOUTHERN NH AND NEAR THE COAST.

MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED GALE WARNINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STAY BELOW THE CRITERIA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
FEATURES WEAK. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RESPOND DUE TO
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS AND SWELLS.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FOR MEZ018-023 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ003>010-013-014 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
&&

CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-NHZ001-002-141500-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE. FLOODING
EARLIER IN OXFORD COUNTY MAINE HAS SUBSIDED. ROUGH SEAS AROUND
TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME SPLASHOVER OR BEACH
EROSION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR WEST AND WILL KEEP
PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS
TIME.

MEZ018-023-NHZ003>010-013-014-141500-
INTERIOR YORK-COASTAL YORK-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FLOODING. ALSO...ROUGH SEAS AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME SPLASHOVER OR BEACH EROSION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH A PREDICTED STORM
TOTAL OF AROUND 5 INCHES THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHTER
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY
AREA WHICH HAVE RECEIVED GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

ANZ150-141500-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT BUT SEAS TO 14 FEET WILL
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF DIFFICULT CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     FLOOD            DURHAM                  43.14N 70.92W
05/13/2006                   STRAFFORD          NH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAME AND BERRITT ROADS WASHED OUT.

0559 PM     FLOOD            LACONIA                 43.53N 71.47W
05/13/2006                   BELKNAP            NH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROADS WASHED OUT IN NORTHFIELD, TILTON AND FRANKLIN.

&&

JC/RAM