Flood in Maine, May 13 to 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1011 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE HEAVY BAND OF RAIN THAT FELL OVER CENTRAL MAINE IS LIGHTENING
AND WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE FLOODING WE HAD EARLIER IS RECEDING. THE
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE HEAVY BAND OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH AND SOUTHWEST CORNER OF ME WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD
WORDING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 636 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. RADAR INDICATES THESE AREAS ARE COMING
UNDER THE GUN...AND THE LOW TOPPED WARM CONVECTION IS FAIRLY
EFFICIENT IN PRODUCTION OF RAINFALL. YORK COUNTY EMA INDICATES
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO BANKFULL. THE 06Z
MODEL RUNS INDICATE A BIT MORE IN RAIN IN MOST PLACES WITH THE GFS
SHOWING THE MAIN BAND A BIT FURTHER NORTH...HELPING IN THE WATCH
DECISION PROCESS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN...WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION TOP THE LIST OF
FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE ASHORE AS THE FLOW
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. THE BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES PRODUCED BETWEEN 1.5
AND 3 INCHES LATER NIGHT...WITH RAPID RISES ON THE SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE BANDING AND EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE RIDGING OVER
THE MARITIMES.

THE FLOW IS MOISTENING...AS SEEN ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS (WITH 850
DEW POINTS NEAR 10 C). SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS BLOCKED TO THE WEST
AND TO THE NORTH...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE PATTERN SEEN IN THE
SHORT TERM.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE HEAVY RAIN. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE EARLIER BAND PRODUCED A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE FLOW IN
THE MID LEVELS SLOWLY BACKING...AND THIS SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS THE
INSTABILITY ON AN AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE CENTRAL ZONES FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE DEEP EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN LEFT IN PLACE. MORE ON THE FLOODING IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

DRYING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE DELAYED A
BIT AS THE BEST DRYING IS STILL OVER EASTERN MAINE...AND THIS LOOKS
TO STAY IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. THE NAM MAY BE A BIT FAST WITH ITS
CLEARING...AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS IN THIS RESPECT. TAPERED THE
RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
AND LEFT THEM IN PLACE IN THE EAST. USED A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS
FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DRYING SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WAS
A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO SKY COVER. CONTINUED THE RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS
MORE OR LESS IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND ONSH0RE WINDS...USED
A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

THE DRYING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY...BUT THE RAIN BAND WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN...USED A BLEND OF MOS
NUMBERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF DRYING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS...WILL ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION AND SPLASHOVER. TIDES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH...BUT THE
POUNDING SURF MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT TO THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE
NORTHEAST. A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SEVERAL DAYS...CONTINUING A BROAD AND MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS NORTH
OF PORTLAND MAY SEE A BREAK OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
ANY SUN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FOR
MONDAY. THE NAM/UKMET ARE DRIER THAN THE GFS/GEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE MODEL SPLIT WILL PLAY IT IN THE MIDDLE. AT ANY
RATE (AND UNFORTUNATELY)...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIKELY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL MENTION A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IN THE HWO.

WILL USE GFS/NAM COMPROMISE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. NO
CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL WET PATTERN IS STILL
FORECAST TO CONTINUE...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY
OF THE LONG TERM.

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE FOR ALL BUT AUG THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE DRYING FROM THE EAST SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS AT AUG TO RISE
ABOVE VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND STAY THERE TONIGHT. CON...PSM
AND PWM WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND
FOG...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT PSM.

MARINE...
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GRADIENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE
MARITIMES IS PRODUCE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EATER WATERS.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH...THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. GIVEN THE DIRECTION AND FETCH OF THE WIND...
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL GET GALE CONDITIONS.

FOR THAT REASON...THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING.
THE EASTERN WATERS WILL FALL BELOW GALE LATER THIS MORNING...AND
COULD EVEN BE JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY THIS EVENING. ALL
WATERS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE TONIGHT AS THE BEST
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON SEAS THIS MORNING...AND WAS USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

IN THE LONG TERM...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN LEFT OVER SEA SWELLS FROM THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW.

HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA THIS MORNING.
MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS LATER THIS MORNING IF THE RAIN BANDS
BECOME ACTIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT SET OF ZONES UP FROM THE
WATCH IF THE BAND ACROSS NORTHERN MA MOVES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BECOME NEARLY EAST TO WEST ORIENTED AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FOR MEZ018-023 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ003>010-013-014 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-NHZ001-002-141500-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE. FLOODING
EARLIER IN OXFORD COUNTY MAINE HAS SUBSIDED. ROUGH SEAS AROUND
TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME SPLASHOVER OR BEACH
EROSION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR WEST AND WILL KEEP
PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS
TIME.

MEZ018-023-NHZ003>010-013-014-141500-
INTERIOR YORK-COASTAL YORK-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FLOODING. ALSO...ROUGH SEAS AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE SOME SPLASHOVER OR BEACH EROSION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH A PREDICTED STORM
TOTAL OF AROUND 5 INCHES THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHTER
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL REPORTS...ESPECIALLY
AREA WHICH HAVE RECEIVED GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

ANZ150-141500-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT BUT SEAS TO 14 FEET WILL
REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF DIFFICULT CONDITIONS.