Flooding in Massachusetts, May 13 to 15, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
801 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WE WILL SEND UPDATES
LATER THIS EVENING TO FRESHEN UP OVERNIGHT WORDING. WE MAY ALSO
REMOVE THUNDER SEEING THAT CHANCES SEEM REMOTE.

MAX RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR IS 6.00 INCHES IN BRISTOL CT.

18Z NAM HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON LOCATION OF MAIN BAND OF RAIN NOW
EDGING SLOWLY INTO SW NH...CENTRAL MA...RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITIES HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FOR THE TIME
BEING...WE STILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION IN PLACE AT 850 MB
WITH ORIGINS NEAR BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS PERSISTENT E FLOW AT LOWEST
LEVELS. CROSS SECTIONS OVER EASTERN MA SHOW A PRONOUNCED LAYER OF
DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN SATURATING SLOWLY SINCE LATE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WE FEEL NAM IS CORRECT IN SHOWING BAND OF
RAIN EDGING FARTHER INTO MERRIMACK VALLEY...RI AND EASTERN MA
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS ALREADY BEING SEEN IN HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
LIFTING N THROUGH RI. OUR NEXT AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL
BE CENTRAL MA AND RI...THEN EASTERN MA AND ADJACENT SW NH AFTER
THAT.

AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...HEAVIEST RAIN SAT SHOULD BE
CENTERED IN MERRIMACK VALLEY WHERE BETTER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO AN AREA WHICH HAS RECEIVED HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN RECENT DAYS /ESPECIALLY ESSEX COUNTY MA/.

&&

.AVIATION...
COORDINATED KBOS TAF WITH CWSU ZBW.

00Z TAFS CONTINUE TREND OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SAT...THOUGH WE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT CT VALLEY TERMINALS
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN POSTED. WE ALLOWED FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN W HAMPDEN AND HARTFORD COUNTIES TO EXPIRE
AT 745 PM...NOW THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED E.

WE ARE COORDINATING WITH NERFC ON MAINSTEM RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR FARMINGTON RIVER AT
UNIONVILLE AND SIMSBURY CT FOR MINOR FLOODING. LATEST FORECASTS ALSO
SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER AS
WELL AS THROUGHOUT MERRIMACK BASIN.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL EXPECTED WITH POINT TOTALS OF
6 OR EVEN 7 INCHES BY SUN. FOCUS IS NOW SHIFTING TO MERRIMACK VALLEY
FOR THESE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006/

..HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE BEYOND 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY WE FEEL THAT WHEN ALL IS SET IT DOWN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
MAY TURN OUT TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
WILL AFFECT BASICALLY THE ENTIRE REGION SO THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO COVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST PART OF SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED HYDRO EVENT OCCURS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BLOCKY WEATHER PATTERN RESULTS IN PERSIST TONGUE OF
HIGH PWAT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND SERIES OF LOW LEVEL JETS.
INITIAL FOCUS IS WHERE HEAVY RAFL NOW OCCURRING ACROSS CT VALLEY
REGION AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES. PWAT OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES LINES
UP WITH LLJ OF 40+ KT. NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING PCPN AXIS A LITTLE
BETTER THAN GFS SO FAR. GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAST IN MOVING
ENTIRE AXIS EAST. NAM GRADUALLY MOVES AXIS FURTHER EAST AND WITH
GREATER FOCUS ON CENTRAL MA/SW NH...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS STRENTH.
HOWEVER...A SECOND STRONG LLJ SETS UP SW GULF OF MAINE TO NE MA
ALONG WITH THE PWAT AXIS. THUS...ANTICIPATE THE HEAVY RAFL TO BECOME
MORE FOCUS IN NE MA...MONADNOCKS AND POSSIBLY ORH HILLS ON
SAT...CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. ANTICIPATE WESTERN ZONES TO RECEIVE
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES BY SAT MORNING WITH SPOT
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY E SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES...REACHING 5 OR 6
INCHES. SIMILAR OR STILL HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN E MA AND SW
NH...ESPECIALLY NE MA AND MONADNOCKS FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS
BUT TOO MUCH OF AN INVERSION FOR EITHER GALE OVER THE WATERS OR ANY
CONCERNS FOR WIND ADVSY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME OVER LAND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY:
IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LOOK TO BE IN THE PRIME AREA FOR THIS
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE COAST WILL BE AT RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...TOTAL TOTALS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN OUR GRAPHICAL FORECAST PRODUCT.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WE
STILL EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT THE FOCUS OVER THIS PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING:
THE MODELS HINT THAT THERE MIGHT BE A LULL IN THE ACTION OVER THIS
TIME FRAME.  AGAIN...TIMING IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT BUT WE THINK THAT
LIGHT AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FORM OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THIS TIME.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.  THE NAM
IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.  THIS WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR SURFACE WINDS TO EVENTUALLY TURN
MORE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY SO WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHICH
IS WARMER THAN THE MEX GUIDANCE.  SEA BREEZES WILL MAKE THE
IMMEDIATE COAST COOLER AT TIMES.  AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...MOST OF TIME IT WILL BE RAIN FREE.  HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCLUDING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS TIME.  FAIRLY
COOL 700 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY SHOWERS.  THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION OVER THIS
TIME...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN SO WILL NOT INSERT AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...
HAVE A SLICE OF VFR CONDITIONS S AND SE OF PYM...AND MOSTLY IFR
ELSEWHERE WITH MANY AREAS OF LIFR. THE VFR SLICE OVER SE MA EXPECTED
TO FILL IN THIS EVENING WHEN GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
AREA. VSBY AT BOS AND A FEW OTHER SITES MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ONCE
THE RAIN FINALLY MOVES IN...BUT ELY WINDS WILL INHIBIT IMPROVEMENT
OVER E COASTAL LOCATIONS AND E UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. SEE GENERAL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIFR PERSISTING INTO/THRU SAT.

MARINE...
IN THE SHORTER TERM...WILL SEE SEAS BUILD AS PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FETCH TAKES ITS TOLL. EXPECTING 10 TO 15 FT SEAS IN OUTER
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERR RIVER TO PVC TO ACK BY SAT MORNING.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVSY WINDS EXPECTED MOST WATERS...BUT HAVE
CAPPED GUSTS AT 30 KT DUE TO EXPECTED LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

IN THE LONGER TERM...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND LONG FETCH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET ACROSS OUT WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
BEACH EROSION AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR SPLASH OVER AT THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  IN ADDITION...FOG WILL
RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY FOR MARINERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY COME DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AS WINDS
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO COVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THIS WATCH IS FOR BOTH URBAN...AS WELL AS SMALL
STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING.

WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY.  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION...
THE TAUNTON WSR-88D IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB IN ITS RAINFALL
ESTIMATION SO FAR.  THE AMOUNTS ARE MATCHING UP PRETTY WELL WITH
WHAT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

AMTS FOR THIS EVENT LISTED SO FAR.

FIRST FOR TODAY
BERLIN CT       3.58
SOUTHINGTON CT  3.38
NEWINGTON CT    2.12
W HARTFORD CT   2.11
TOLLAND CT      2.02
WHETHERSFIELD CT 2.00
WILLIAMSBURG MA  2.00
BURLINGTON CT    3.52

BURLINGTON CT INCLUDES FLOODED ROAD AND UNCONFIRMED POLICE REPS OF
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

SECOND EVENTUALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN ESSEX COUNTY OF FAR NORTHEAST MASS

TOTAL MONTH OF MAY AMTS THRU 5/11

ROCKPORT    5.33
GLOUCESTER  5.40
BEVERLY     4.40
LAWRENCE    3.40

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ002>021-026 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
RI...FLOOD WATCH FOR RIZ001>007 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ232>235-237 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ250-254-255 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JWD/AED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-131100-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
450 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER ENTIRE REGION
EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME
OF THE REGION.  THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN...SMALL STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING EXISTS.

THE FLOODING MAY BECOME SERIOUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THEREFORE...PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT /BOSFFABOX/ FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

THROUGH SUNDAY...WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WILL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 5
AND 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISH TO LIGHT
RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MAY IS EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

IF THIS SECOND BATCH OF RAIN MATERIALIZES LIKE WE EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING EXISTS AND IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

IN ADDITION...A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING
TO 10 TO 15 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGH SEAS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

THE LONG DURATION OF HIGH SEAS AND EASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
SOME BEACH EROSION THIS WEEKEND. EAST FACING BEACHES MAY ALSO SEE
SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AT THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND/OR
ANY FLOODING REPORTS ARE REQUESTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THANKS IN
ADVANCE TO ALL OUR SPOTTERS FOR YOUR HELP

FRANK