High Wind in Nevada, January 7, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
750 PM PST SAT JAN 7 2006

.UPDATE...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS MOST LIKELY AFFECTED. MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS AND MAKE THAT
DECISION A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. RC

.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE WITH BAND OF PRECIP IN NW CA MOVE QUICKLY EWD  ACROSS
NERN CA AND NWRN NV THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE REGION BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FT AND
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCH...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS PROBABLE IN NRN
PARTS OF LASSEN COUNTIES AND SURPRISE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE
RAIN BAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER IT ENTERS
NWRN NV. FARTHER SOUTH...BREEZY CONDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING WITH DRY CONDS PREVAILING. RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
MAY ALLOW FOR FORMATION OF EARLY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIP THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS THE MORE COMMON VALLEY FOG AROUND
TRUCKEE AIRPORT AS FLOW ALOFT DIMINISHES.

FLAT RIDGING WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUN-MON WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH MORE CIRRUS
IN THE NORTH. FOR THE MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT PERIOD...A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIP MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE FASTER TIMING OF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN PREFERRED DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A RICHER MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC IS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. CURRENT SATELLITE DATA
ESTIMATES UP TO 2 INCHES OF PW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH THE GFS
ESTIMATING UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF PW FROM MON NGT-TUES NGT REACHING THE
CA COAST. TOTAL PRECIP FROM THIS WARM ADVECTION EVENT MAY RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH IN NERN CA MAINLY DURING TUES AFTN-EVE WHICH WOULD
BRING SOME RISES TO THE PIT AND SUSAN RIVERS...BUT NOT LIKELY TO
CAUSE FLOODING SINCE THE GROUND HAS BEGUN TO DRY OUT AND THE RIVERS
HAVE RECEDED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SNOW LEVELS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER...MAINLY IN THE 6000-7000 FT RANGE.
MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GENERALLY FLAT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOST OF ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
NV. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALTHO BOTH THE UK AND ECMWF HAVE MUCH
MORE AMPLITUDE IN FLOW BY END OF THE WEEK THAN DOES THE GFS. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV IN WARM SECTOR AND STILL
SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION WED AND THUR MAINLY TAHOE NORTH AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE RIPPLES THROUGH FLOW. COULD SEE MODERATE PCPN IN NRN
SIERRA WED SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR STREAMS AND RIVERS TAHOE NWD.
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH SPILLOVER ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS LEE SIDE
POSSIBLE. DO NOT THINK THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS
THUR MORNING AS HEIGHTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS REGION SO WILL
INCREASE LEVELS. MODELS STILL PUMPING UP RIDGE FOR FRIDAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT PERIOD DRY. MORE AMPLITUDE IN UPPER FLOW WILL SERVE TO
SLOW DOWN ONSET OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD COME IN SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE JET PUSHED FURTHER
NORTH. SHOULD BE BETWEEN ABOUT 7K AND 8K INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING RAPIDLY TO VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY NIGHT.  JAH

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LLWS LEE OF SIERRA RNO-BIH THROUGH 00Z. LOCAL MVFR CONDS IN
SCT -SHRA/-SHSN TAHOE NORTH WITH MTS OBSCD THROUGH 08Z. JAH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST ZONES 1 AND 3.
.CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST ZONE 73.