Damaging Wind in Nebraska, June 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST 84 HOURS...WITH A SURFACE FRONT OSCILLATING NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG ERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. SFC
RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM KS/NE LINE INTO NERN COLORADO...THEN NORTH
INTO ERN SECTIONS OF WYOMING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SFC DEW POINTS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE UPWARD OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM SOLNS SEEM TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS
UPWARD...HOWEVER THE MODEL IS OVERESTIMATING THE DEW POINT TEMPS
2-5F THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SFC FRONT IN THE NAM A LITTLE TOO
FAR SOUTH ATTM WITH REGARDS TO SFC OBS. REGARDLESS...A STRONG UPPR
WAVE ENTERING NWRN WYOMING ATTM AND WILL BE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM
FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS OF WYOMING AND NERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...THEN TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING. WILL PAINT HIGHEST POPS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AS THE NOSE OF THE LLJET IS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD LIFT TOWARD I80
BY EVENING (AKA SRN BIAS WITH THE MODEL SOLN). CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WILL PUSH THE SFC BOUNDARY INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
KANSAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NRN KS AND NERN COLORADO. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS NERN COLORADO. UPPR LVL WRLYS WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY
INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT DECIDES TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH
THAN ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAYS PRECIPITATION SETUP
SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS WITH A FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS SRN NEBRASKA AND
THETA E RIDGING INTO NERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. PWS AND DEW
POINTS INDICATIVE OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...PAINTED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN FA.

LONG RANGE (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE ACTIVE PERIODS WITHIN THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. PERSISTENT THETA E RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE FRONTRANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. WITH INITIATION TO THE
WEST...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK DECENT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
ACCORDINGLY. FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION IN THE H5 PATTERN WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND TROFING IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS H5 FLOW
BECOMES ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. THE GFS SOLN MOST BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS THE CLOSED H5 HIGH FURTHER
WEST (THUS FAVORING NWRLY FLOW VS. NRLY FLOW ALOFT). STILL...NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE TO EVEN BITE ON A SMALL POP
MENTION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-201200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
402 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 /302 PM MDT MON JUN 19 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF AN ELLSWORTH TO TRYON TO BRADY LINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FRONTS...WHOSE POSITION MAY
IN TURN ALSO BE DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
PRODUCT WILL BE CONTINUALLY UPDATED FOR THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

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