Hail in Nebraska, June 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. COOP REPORTS AND RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE SWATH OF 1 TO 4 INCHES FELL ACROSS THIS AREA.
1 HOURLY FFG HAS FALLEN TO AROUND OF .5 TO 1.5 IN THIS AREA.
MORNING STORMS WHERE VERY EFFECTIVE RAIN PRODUCERS AND WITH VERY
MOIST SOUNDINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW AS FORECAST REALLY HINGES ON HOW
MUCH WE CLEAR OUT AND HOW FAR FRONT MOVES. LOCAL OBS SHOWING FRONT
SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST SO WILL KEEP CURRENT IDEA OF HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 215 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006)

DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FRONTAL POSITION AND ITS
IMPACT ON WHERE/WHEN/HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/3 OF COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS MORNING.

TODAY/TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH VARIOUS
DISTURBANCES AND INCREASES IN UPPER JET DIVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 850 MB FEED
MOISTURE TOWARD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
PRECIPITATION AXIS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS THE FRONT AND UPPER
SUPPORT SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS A BIG
CONCERN GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
COLBY AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. CURRENT QPF IN THE GRIDS HITS THESE AREAS
THE HARDEST. WILL AWAIT THE CO-OP RAINFALL REPORTS AND COMPARE THEM
TO RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO POSSIBLY HOIST ANY
HYDRO PRODUCTS. I WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWOGLD PRODUCT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND THE COVERAGE OF IT WOULD DEPEND ON
WHETHER WE GET ANY SUNSHINE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT READINGS AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW 60S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER WITH THE WAVE
AND DOESNT BRING ONE THROUGH. HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS FOR NOW AND
KEPT CURRENT SILENT POPS IN TACT.

MONDAY...700-500RH AND 500 HEIGHTS FROM THE GFS SHOW A WEAK WAVE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
BY DAYS END. 700 TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ARE IN THE
17-18C RANGE WITH CIN VALUES AROUND 20 OR SO. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GREATLY. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ015-
     KSZ016-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ042.

NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

JRM/DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1156 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006 /1056 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY...BUT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TRIBUNE KANSAS TO TRENTON NEBRASKA
LINE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS RAIN
WILL FALL IN AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN LAST NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A SELKIRK TO NORCATUR LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTH OF GRAHAM TO GOVE COUNTY LINE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HAIL             4 S NORTON              39.78N 99.89W
06/16/2006  E1.75 INCH       NORTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/16/2006  M63 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/16/2006                   SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MAJOR STREET FLOODING DOWNTOWN GOODLAND...SOME AREAS 1
            FOOT DEEP

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     TORNADO          GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/16/2006                   SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FEW HOMES WITH MINOR DAMAGE...ROOF RIPPED OFF
            HOME...TREES DOWN

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 S NORTON             39.63N 99.89W
06/16/2006  E60 MPH          NORTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W BEARDSLEY           39.81N 101.25W
06/16/2006  E60 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBLAIR