Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
424 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...STG TO SEV TSTMS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SERN CO TODAY...
...MUCH LOWER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION THREAT TODAY...

CURRENTLY...MILD-WARM CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 70S ACROSS SERN CO. ATYPICAL JUNE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM SLOW INCHING ITS WAY ACROSS CO. HINTS OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
SWRN CO/NWRN NM WITH RELATIVELY DEEP S-SWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC
PER RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES. ISOLD-NUM SHRA/TSRA WERE ACROSS
ERN CO/WRN KS IN RESPONSE TO H8-H7 AND H7-H6 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG WITH OTHER IMPLIED VERTICAL MOTION AND AIR MASS DESTABLIZATION
KINEMATICS. SFC DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE 20S/30S ALONG I-25
CORRIDOR AND WWD WITH SOME DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS IN VALLEYS. 50S
DEW POINTS REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO...BUT RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR...DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...ARE SNEAKING UP FROM THE S. REGIONAL
RADAR HAS SHOWN ISOLD-SCT ECHOES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT NOT
MUCH REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVELS. KCOS
HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REPORT -RA...SO SOME PRECIPITATION IS HITTING
THE GROUND...BUT LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS ERN EL PASO COUNTY-PUEBLO COUNTY
AND BACK TOWARDS KIOWA COUNTY. KLHX...KLAA...AND KSPD STILL HAVE SLY
WINDS.

TODAY...COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IN THE OFFING. BEING CHALLENGED BY
MANY MODEL BIASES THIS MORNING. FIRST...THE NAM SFC DEW POINTS ARE
WAY OVERDONE. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE MODEL PRINTING OUT TOO
MUCH PRECIPITATION AND JUICY UP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVEN WHAT
IS ON THE RADAR. 06Z/16 NAM12 HAS 50F DEW POINTS AROUND KPUB AT
12Z/16...NOT SURE IF THAT WILL EVEN BE CLOSE.  THE TRUE SFC DEW
POINTS...ALONG WITH OTHER FEATURES...WILL DICTATE HOW UNSTABLE IT
WILL REALLY GET. WILL PLAY THE WEAK MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SWRN CO TO
MOVE SLOWLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TODAY. LOW LEVEL SFC/PBL BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL OUT FROM ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY TO BACA COUNTY TO
PROWERS COUNTY. PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT DATA HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
OF 800-2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2C TO -7C IN EXTREME SERN CO
AROUND THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MUCH DRIER LAYER...H8-H6...SO SFC DEW POINTS
COULD GET MIXED OUT AND AFFECT THE CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX DATA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME FAT CAPE IN H6-H2 LAYER BETWEEN
15Z-21Z WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION(CIN) IN EXTREME SERN CO.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...PER MODEL DATA...TO
REALIZE THE CAPE DESPITE THE WEAK CIN. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
EXITS ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 45-75KTS
JUXTAPOSED. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A SUPERCELL COULD GET ANCHORED
ON THE BOUNDARY AND DOESNT MOVE MUCH. FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE 6K-8K AND 4K-7K AGL FT...RESPECTFULLY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THE LOW LEVELS A LITTLE MORE SATURATED...LOWER LCL
HEIGHT...FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IN EXTREME SERN CO
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT COULD HAPPEN IF ALL THE NECESSARY
PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER. PLAN TO MENTION SEV TSTMS IN EXTREME SERN
CO FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...TO THE
W...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EWD. RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITY...AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP THE APPROX 700 ACRE
TYNDALL GULCH WILDFIRE IN CUSTER COUNTY.  STILL LOOKS LIKE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT A BIG CHALLENGE IN SERN CO SINCE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS. DONT
TYPICALLY SEE A LOT OF FALLING OR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN JUNE...BUT
THIS IS AN ATYPICAL PATTERN.

TONIGHT...WEAK SLOWLY MOVING CLOSED LOW MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.  WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THIS EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THE STG-SEV TSTMS SHOULD BE E AND S OF
SERN CO BY THE EVE.  SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK ON
TARGET.  METZE

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW EXITS SOUTHEAST CO SATURDAY MORNING.
NAM12 KEEPS SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE STATE
DURING THE MORNING IN NW QUAD OF UPPER LOW IN VCNTY OF MID LVL
THETA-E RIDGE. THUS WILL KEEP SOME MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA. AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO NOSE IN OVER THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY.
GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COOLER MET AND THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...BUT WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...ITS DIFFICULT TO REMOVE
POPS ENTIRELY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH
H7 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO BETWEEN +15 TO +21C BY MONDAY. CORE OF
WARMEST H7 AIRMASS IS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THESE DAYS.

SHORTWAVE RIDES OVERTOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN US
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT/TUES. THIS MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT TO NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE BY TUES MORNING. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT
ALL THE IMPRESSIVE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WITH READINGS IN THE ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. LATEST GFS CUTS OFF ENERGY IN THE SRN
STREAM AND KEEPS IT WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER SRN CA. THIS IS
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN 00Z RUN YESTERDAY HAD INDICATED. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THEN COLD FRONT MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME MAKING
IT INTO SE CO FOR THE WED/THURS TIME FRAME. CURRENT GRIDS ARE
GOING A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR PCPN...WHICH SEEMS THE WAY TO GO GIVEN THIS LATEST
RUN. THUS...NO CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUESDAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

17/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
837 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

COZ058>089-093>099-171445-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
837 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS KIOWA...BENT...
PROWERS...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS...AND BACA COUNTIES. COMMUNITIES
HAVING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EADS...LAS
ANIMAS...KIM...LAMAR...AND SPRINGFIELD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE HAIL UP TO
1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS MEETING REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM THIS EVENING.