Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES ATTM WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN TO THE EAST. RUC HAS HAD BETTER HANDLE
ON WIND FIELDS SO FAR THIS MORNING AND LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD WITH
DRYLINE POSITION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING FROM WEST TEXAS
MESONET THIS MORNING SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO 12Z MAF SOUNDING WITH
MID LEVEL INVERSION...WEAKNESS IN WIND FIELD ABOVE 700 MB AND
STRONG CAP AROUND 15C AT 700MB. SATL SHOWING VORT CENTER ACROSS
NRN NM WITH DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN NM. EXPECT DRYLINE TO SHARPEN
ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CLOSER TO CENTER
OF SYSTEM. WITH STRONG CAP FURTHER S...EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORMS
AND LATER INITIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS BIG SPRING. ADVERTISED
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
BUMPED TEMPS UP SOME GIVEN DRY SOILS AND FORECAST SOUTHWEST/WEST
FLOW BEHIND DRYLINE.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN BEHIND DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
RH VALUES ALREADY NEAR 10%. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING
WIND SPEEDS BACK TO MARGINAL 20 MPH AT 20 FT LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND RED FLAG EASTWARD SOME IF
WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAILEY...COCHRAN...PARMER...AND YOAKUM.

&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

TXZ021>044-171645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1137 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE SOUTH PLAINS. ALSO...A DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SHARPEN NEAR THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR BY MID-
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA TO ABERNATHY LINE...WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE.

DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TODAY.
MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
EXPLOSIVE FIRE WEATHER GROWTH GIVEN IGNITION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27
CORRIDOR. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.