Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE LOOSE JUICE APPEARS TO BE IN A HURRY TO SCRAMBLE NORTHWARD INTO
THE OZARKS TODAY WITH GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY INDICATING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ALREADY APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES OVER THE OZARKS. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPERATURES HAVE EFFECTIVELY
ELIMINATED THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AS UPPER LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT LOOK FOR FORCING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH MODEST THETA E ADVECTION TO
SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
THIS FEATURE EVEN AFTER SUNSET. WORRIED THAT LOW END CHANCE POPS MAY
END UP BEING A BIT CONSERVATIVE TONIGHT SO WILL TAKE A LAST MINUTE
LOOK AT RADAR TRENDS AND 18Z DATA TO MAKE A FINAL DECISION.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TX
UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SETTING UP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FETCH AND USHERING IN SOME OF THE BEST MOISTURE OF THE
SEASON INTO THE REGION. SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND SUBTLE
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. WITH UPPER LOW OVER TX SHEARING OUT
AND LIFTING NORTHWARD ITS LOOKING LIKE ACTIVITY TOMORROW SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD KEEPING HEATING TO A MINIMUM AND LIKELY LIMITING
OUR SEVERE THREAT. SHOULD WE GET MORE HEATING THAN EXPECTED THEN
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE A
GOOD BET.

SUNDAY ITS HARDER TO FIND A KEY FEATURE TO HANG OUR HAT ON BUT
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE UNCHANGED SO CONTINUED WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE AND HEATING SUNDAY SO PULSE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A BIT
HIGHER. UPPER LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
WITH MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT MONDAY OVER OUR EASTERN CWA WITH
PROBABLY LOWER COVERAGE THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING EXTENDED GRIDS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE
MEANDERING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHEREVER THIS WEAKNESS SETS
UP SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED PM
SHRA/TSRA SO DID NUDGE POPS UP TO SCHC IN GRIDS BUT BELOW
MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS STILL FOR TEXT PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS. PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DETECTING A DEVELOPING STRATOCU
FIELD...THE BASES OF WHICH SHOULD SETTLE AROUND 5KFT. BY TONIGHT...
ANOTHER LLJ OF 35KTS WILL BE JUST OFF THE DECK. WITH SFC WINDS
REMAINING AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS...NOT SURE LLWS WILL BE A MAJOR
ISSUE AND WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

FINAL CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCOMING FROM THE SOUTH...AND LIFT SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
CONVERGE ON THE REGION MUCH OF SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE
INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL WITH VCTS AT BOTH THE JLN AND SGF
AERODROMES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EXTREME SE KS AND THE MO OZARKS...MOST LIKELY JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
229 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
  EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
  SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT.  THIS
 WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.

 THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
 HOURS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH
 THE MOIST AIRMASS AND CREATES INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL SOME
 UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
 WILL EXIST TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG
 TO SEVERE STORMS. IF SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...WIND GUSTS IN
 EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER/CLAYCOMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

MOZ096-162245-
DOUGLAS-
509 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF AVA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR AVA BY 520 PM CDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TERRY