Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.UPDATE...

INTERESTING SCENARIO EVOLVING EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN KANSAS BEING DRIVEN BY MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS...WHICH SHOWS
UP NICELY IN THE VERTICAL TIME SERIES OF FAIRBURY NE PROFILER. IN
ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TODAYS CONVECTION ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND EASTERN KANSAS REMAINS QUITE DISCERNABLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW NEODESHA PROFILER
SHOWS PRONOUNCED VEERING FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 1.5KM WITH ABOUT 15KT
OF FLOW BEING LIFTING ISENTROPICALLY UP AND OVER THE COLD POOL.
ANTICIPATE THE LOW LEVEL OFF THE SURFACE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...WITH ABOUT 25-30KT LOW LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM RIDING UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SUPPLY AN
INCREASING FEED OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
AS IT TRACKS ESE INTO THE OZARKS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE OUR EVENING SOUNDING AND
WHAT THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS LIKE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THAT WILL
HOPEFULLY SHED SOME MORE LIGHT ON HOW ORGANIZED THIS MCS WILL BECOME
TONIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS OVER
OUR NW CWA AND INCREASING QPF SOME AS WELL. FURTHER GRIDDED UPDATES
WILL BE MADE ONCE SOUNDING DATA COMES IN AND WE CAN GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AND WARM
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGGED
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE TRAINING COULD OCCUR NEAR THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE MCS IF ONE ORGANIZES THIS EVENING.

UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

IZZI

&&

.DISCUSSION...//ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006//

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES IN LATER PERIODS.

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED WEST OVER THE LAST DAY
OR SO ALLOWING WEAK IMPULSES TO RIDE E-SE THROUGH THE MIDLEVEL FLOW.
PROFILERS AND WATER VAPOR METSAT IMAGERY INDICATE ONE SUCH
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH MO THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND
MESO SFC HIGH OVER THE OZARKS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL. A WELL
PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST
OK INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AR AND SOME ISOLD-SCT STRONG
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO 100 DEG F WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ATTM..IT
LOOKS TOO STABLE  TO SEE MUCH OF SEVERE STORM THREAT...EXCEPT FOR
OVER THE SW CORNER OF MO AND SOUTHEAST KS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EITHER ALREADY FAIRLY UNSTABLE OR MAY RECOVER QUICKLY FROM EXITING
CLOUDINESS. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IN THE SHORT TERM IS ALONG THE AR
BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO WHERE STORM MOTION AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TO AFFECT THAT
AREA IN THE NEAR TERM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM IA
INTO SE NEB AND KS. THE FRONT AND AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST KS AND BELIEVE THAT TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MO/SE KS THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE MO
OZARKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WRF PROGGED 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES INDICATE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME
ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 2
INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
RAIN PRODUCERS. HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT REGIONWIDE
INTO THE 50-60 POP RANGE. SEVERE STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN IF STORMS IN KS CAN ORGANIZE WITH A SUSTAINED COLD POOL AND
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THAT CONVECTION CAN RECOVER FROM TODAYS
CONVECTION.

BELIEVE MOST THE PRECIP WILL PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AND HAVE CONFINED POPS TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO
COUNTIES TO THE MORNING HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BUILD THE
MIDLEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE OUR GENERAL PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
STABLE OVER THE CONUS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS DOES REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW YET ANOTHER WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY. SINCE THIS
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A PERSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...HAVE BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME
FRAME (CHANCE CATEGORY).

THE GFS DOES SHIFT THE 500MB RIDGE BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AND HAVE LEFT DAYS 6-7 WED-THU DRY
FOR NOW AND WENT WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. DSA

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0000 UTC TAFS...APPEARS AS THOUGH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...LIKELY
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-05Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY
INTRODUCED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT JLN GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AND SOONER POTENTIAL ARRIVAL TIME. AT SGF MAINTAINED
VCTS FOR LATER THIS EVENING BUT WILL AMEND AS SOON AS IT BECOMES
CLEAR THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES INTO THE AREA.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY.

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
723 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
723 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
    WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
  BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AFTER 11 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING
  OVER EASTERN KANSAS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
  IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
  ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
  CERTAINLY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

  OF GREATER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK ONE TO
  TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS...WITH VERY LOCALIZED RAINFALL
  TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE DRY
  SOIL CONDITIONS...RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD LEAD TO
  SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE
  AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  POSSIBLE.

  ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
  ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
913 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALBA                    37.24N 94.42W
08/10/2006                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
927 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOPLIN                  37.08N 94.51W
08/10/2006                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JASPER COUNTY 911 REPORTS WIDESPREAD POWERLINES AND TREES
            DOWN THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF JASPER
            COUNTY...INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF JOPLIN AND WEBB
            CITY.

&&

JAS