Hail in Missouri, April 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
159 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING RWS AND TRWS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
AND SLIDE SE ALONG FRONT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THIS BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF PCPN THAT WILL DEVELOP AND SLIDE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
KS...WHICH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE THE BEST PLACEMENT ON THE PCPN AND BOUNDARY...SO WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION. MAIN BULK OF PCPN TO MOVE INTO CWA BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.

THEN SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK ON MONDAY...THIS WILL PULL THE
BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH...GIVING MOST OF CWA A BRIEF
BREAK...BEFORE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY PCPN MONDAY NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN
END BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND THAT...SHOULD SEE STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING IN COOLER...DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO FOR NOW JUST HAVE
SILENT 20 POPS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...QUASI-STNRY FNT CONTS FM ERN KS THRU SRN MO.
ELEVATED TRW CONTS TO REDEVELOP NE OF THE FNTL BNDRY OVR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO. THIS ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOV RPDLY
SEWRD. OTHER STG TRW DEVELOPED OVR SW MO W OF SGF. THS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE WRM FNTL BNDRY AND NOSE OF SFC DEWPT
AXIS WHICH EXTDS FM EXTREME SW MO THRU CNTRL TX. THESE STORMS ATTM
APPEAR TO BE MOVING EWRD ACRS SRN MO. EXPCT ADDITIONAL TRW FOR FORM
OVR ERN AND SE KS LTR THS AFTN AND EVE AND MOV ESEWRD. VFR CONDS
EXPCTD OVR NE MO THRU W CNTRL IL AND TO NR STL AREA THS AFTN. WL
BRNG TRW STL VCNTY LTR THS AFTN AND EVE. YET CONFIDENCE LVL IS NOT
AS HIGH COMPARED TO LTR TNGTS ACTIVITY. WRM FNT EXTDNG FM SFC LO
OVR WRN KS THRU SRN MO EXPCTD TO SLOLY LIFT NEWRD LTR THS EVE THRU
MON. MDLS HINTING UPON A ORGANIZED MCS TO MOV ACRS CNTRL AND ERN MO
ERY MON MRNG. MON AFTN AND EVE APPEARS TO BE MESSY WITH ADDITIONAL
STG TRW EXPCTED.

PRZYBYLINSKI
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

ILZ079-102-MOZ041-047>050-059-062-065-072>075-084-085-099-241200-
BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
MADISON-MONITEAU-MONROE IL-OSAGE-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON-
407 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THESE AREAS. THERE IS A RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF MISSOURI FOR
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF MISSOURI ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-095>101-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-
042-051-052-060-061-063-064-241200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-
FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE-
PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN-WASHINGTON IL-
407 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CENTRAL
MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

RP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1029 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     HAIL             4 ESE POTOSI            37.91N 90.71W
04/23/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TILLY