Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 23, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

SFC DEW POINTS FALLING NICELY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KS AS
DRY LINE MIXES ITS WAY EASTWARD. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
HIGH BASED SHOWERS IN ERN CO EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MOVING
NORTHEAST WHILE SHORT FUSE COMPOSITE AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CAP HAD ALREADY ERODED AS OF 2PM CDT IN THE S/SW WITH SOME WEAK
MCONV EXTENDING FROM HYS-DDC-LBL. CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG
WERE LOCATED EAST OF DDC SO FIRST GUESS IS A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY EAST/SE OF DDC. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST GRIDS AS NEEDED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 85H WAA DEVELOPS BETWEEN 00Z-6Z MONDAY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH CONTINUES THOROUGH MONDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF
APPROACHES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH. AS FOR THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THIS EVENING BASED ON
CAPES AND 25- 30KTS OF DEEP SHEAR.

COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS MONDAY USHERING IN SOME
COOLER TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS. 85H ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR (-1 TO-3C) WORKING ITS WAY INTO CNTL/ERN
MONTANA. ALTHOUGH DO THINK THIS WILL MODIFY SOME AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AM LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR SETTLES
INTO THE STATE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT
GRIDS WITH A GRADIENT OF TEMPS FROM NW TO SE STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT AND 18Z/00Z 85H TEMPS.

AS FOR PCPN CHCS MONDAY NIGHT...DO SEE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH 00Z TUES...THEN BY 06Z DOWNGLIDE THEN DEVELOPS AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF I330-I305 TREND FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE OVERNIGHT LOWS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ANY RAINFALL WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ON GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING A SURFACE HIGH INTO WESTERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S TO LOW 30S DEWPOINTS. THE BIG
QUESTION IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. IF SO THEN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE AROUND OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP KEEP COOL TEMPS GOING. NEXT QUESTION IS WITH FORECAST UPPER LOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND MAY BRING SOME
RAINFALL. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOOKS TO BE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  61  37  55 /   0  20  20   0
GCK  54  56  36  55 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  50  55  36  56 /   0  20  20   0
LBL  54  56  37  56 /   0  20  20   0
HYS  54  62  38  55 /  40  40  20   0
P28  63  74  41  59 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
432 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240945-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
432 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2006 /332 AM MDT SUN APR 23 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND A DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO SCOTT CITY. FURTHER
SOUTH...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

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