Heavy Snow in Minnesota, January 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTERESTING FCST SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HRS...WITH
SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE CNTRL PLAINS SET TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING. ECHOES THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE
EVENING HRS ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX
THAT MOVED OUT OF THE DAKOTAS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. VERY
LITTLE PCPN ACTUALLY REACHED THE GROUND FROM THESE ECHOES...WITH
VERY DRY AIR REMAINING ALOFT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 19/00Z KMPX
RAOB. INSPECTION OF THE LOCAL 88D MOSAIC AND SFC OBS IN SODAK
SHOWS THAT THE MAIN SHOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACRS ERN SODAK...WITH A
BAND OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY FROM APPROX PIERRE TO ABERDEEN. THIS
PCPN HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY
IN S CNTRL SODAK.

SFC LO IS FCST TO MOVE TO THE ENE TODAY...TREKKING THRU SRN IA TO
THE WI/IL BRDR BY 00Z TNGT. THIS MOVEMENT WILL PLACE PORTIONS OF
CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS FROM MID MRNG AND INTO THE LATE AFTN HRS...RESULTING
IN A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW TOTALS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 4 INCHES
IN SPOTS /WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND GFS BUFR DATA AS WELL
AS THE COBB OUTPUT FROM THE BUFR DATA/. AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX
/CURRENTLY IN S CNTRL SODAK/ WILL ALSO TRAVERSE THIS AREA...WHICH
WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT FROM ROUGHTLY RWF TO MSP TO RCX. N TO S
ORIENTED CROSS SECTIONS THRU BOTH THE TWIN CITIES AND W CNTRL WI
SHOW A 3 TO 6 HR PERIOD OF HIGH OMEGA VALUES...IN ADDITION TO A
NEARLY VERTICAL AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION. A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
NEGATIVE EPV ALSO EXISTS IN THE H5 TO H6 LAYER...ALONG WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2 TO 3 G/KG IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER.
NAM BUFR OUTPUT PAINTS THE BULLSEYE OF MAX OMEGA OCCURRING IN
THE RGN OF MOST EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. WITH ALL THESE INGREDIENTS
COMING TOGETHER...CONCERN EXISTS THAT A FEW AREAS /MAYBE A NARROW
STRIPE/ MAY SEE TOTALS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR MAINLY E CNTRL
MN AND W CNTRL WI.

AFTER MIDNGT TNGT...MUCH OF THE PCPN THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM SHUD REMAIN TO THE N OF THE FA AS A COUPLE OF UPR WAVES
MOVE ACRS NRN MN AND INTO THE WRN GRTLKS...MAINLY ON SAT AND SAT
NGT. HAVE PUT IN SOME FLURRIES ON SAT NGT ACRS W CNTRL WI.

TEMP WISE...WARM AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR SHUD REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...LEAVING TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

MANY THANKS TO ABR...DLH...ARX...AND FGF FOR THE COORD THIS MRNG.

LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR DAYTIME MAXES WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE TEENS. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
BASIC WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SHOULD REFLECT MODIFIED PACIFIC
AIR FORCED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ENDING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HEAVY DUTY ARCTIC AIR IS DISPLACED WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. IN SUMMARY...BASICALLY A MILD DRY
PERIOD.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ANOKA-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-RAMSEY-
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT COUNTY(IES).

WI...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-
     ST. CROIX COUNTY(IES).

&&

KAT/WET

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