Hail in Minnesota, April 18, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
321 PM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW HOLDING TIGHT
OFF NOVA SCOTIA. THE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE WITH THE
DAKOTAS LOW WOBBLING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM IS AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE MN
CWA TONIGHT AND THE WI CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL STICK WITH HIGH
POPS TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH INCREASING LAYER MOISTURE...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND AN
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. INSTABILITY
TONIGHT IS BEST WAY TO OUR SOUTH AT THE TRIPLE POINT...AND KEPT
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. A DRY SLOT
SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHERN MN FAIRING THE BEST. ONE CONCERN TOMORROW IS THAT THE LAPSE
RATES BECOME SUPER ADIABATIC NEAR THE SURFACE AND NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
IS LIMITED...THE TQ INDEX APPROACHES 18 AND ELEVATED CAPE REACHES
NEARLY 100 J/KG. KEPT THE WEATHER TYPE AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWA AT START OF FORECAST PERIOD. AT
SOME POINT THIS SYSTEM HAS TO BE EAST OF US AND EXPECTING...PER NEW
GFS...THAT SAT AND MOST OF SUN SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. NEXT S/W
DROPPING DOWN IN LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH TO
MAKE ME A TAD ANXIOUS ABOUT DRY FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY. WILL AWAIT A
VALIDATION FROM NEXT GFS RUN TO SEE CONSISTENCY. TIMING AFTER DARK
ON SUNDAY AND BEFORE MONDAY MORNING COULD MAKE THIS EVENT UNIMPOSING
ON PUBLIC EVENTS. TEMPS ON WEEKEND LOOK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
191200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
450 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS MORNING OVER FAR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL IS  POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORRIS...TO MANKATO...AND ALBERT LEA.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.