Wildfire in Kentucky, January 8, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 AM CST SUN JAN 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS FROM WRN TX TO THE GREAT LAKES WERE QUITE PREVALENT
ON SATELLITE OVERNIGHT. METARS INDICATED EVIDENCE OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL S/WV NEAR THE ROCKIES THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIG ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. IT APPEARS THE S/WV WILL
TRANSITION INTO TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST AND DRIVING THE SFC LOW ENE TODAY...AND THE SECOND ONE
DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND POSSIBLY GIVING THE SERN HALF OF THE PAH
FCST AREA SOME RAIN FOR THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

TODAY/S CONCERN IS THE REALLY GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SET
UP ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES. LOOKING AT MODEL
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS THAT THE SFC COULD EXPERIENCE
GUSTS TO 35 MPH TODAY ONCE THE WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTH...AND THIS COULD FLIRT WITH
RECORD HIGHS. FOR FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE
25 PERCENT EXCEPT FOR PART OF SERN MO...NAMELY SHANNON COUNTY WHERE
THE HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY APPROACH 25 PERCENT OVER A SMALL AREA.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE CHARACTER OF
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW BEING DEPICTED AS A OPEN MID
LEVEL WAVE AND INVERTED SFC TROF INSTEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
CLOSED LOW PER PREVIOUS GFS RUNS. WE STILL LEFT A LITTLE RAIN CHANCE
IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR MON NITE...THEN A BIT LARGER SECTOR /SERN/
GETTING RAIN FOR TUE AND TUE NITE...BUT NO MORE THAN 40 POP
ANYWHERE. AN UPDATE FOR THE THOSE IN DOUBT...THE 06Z GFS RUN IS NOW
LOOKING MORE LIKE THE 00Z NAM AND MOVING ALL THE PCPN OFF TO THE SE.

DID NOT MODIFY THE FCST BEYOND WED EXCEPT FOR MINOR TWEAKS SUCH AS
TEMPS. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF/SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
FRI...GIVING US ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS. ATTM THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO TIMING AND DYNAMICS OF THIS
SYSTEM. JUST LIKE TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE LOTS OF WARMING AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM NEXT THU.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
140 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH WINDS
AND ONGOING WILDFIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE QUAD STATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. REFERENCE THE
OFFICIAL WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUSTAIN AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 45 TO 50 MPH...AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
QUAD STATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. REFERENCE THE
OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.