High Wind in Alaska, January 8, 2006

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN JAN 8 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...NOTE SEVERAL AMENDMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED
ABOUT THE TIME OF THIS PRODUCT.

GOES WV AND IR COMBINED WITH PRESSURE TENDENCY
FOOTPRINTS INDICATE AT STRONG TRIPLE FEATURE CROSSING THE
CHARLOTTES WITH NE TRACK TOWARD PRINCE RUPERT.  THIS TRIPLE
POINT IS NOT CYCLOGENETIC...BUT HAS THE BEST JET STREAK
SUPPORT ACCORDING TO MDCARS AIRLINE DATA.  THE GOES LOOP
ALSO SHOWS AN OCCLUSION THAT IS NOT MATURE AND DOES SEEM TO
HAVE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SMALL
CIRCULATIONS IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT SHOULD NOT BE CLOSED
TO MORE THAN ABOUT 4 MB AT THE SURFACE.

THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
WAVES ON IT ARE SMALL AND DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO TRACK
SO A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSULTED. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBER 2 FROM 080000Z RUN DID HINT AT NORTHERN
LOW...BUT BEST SOLUTION USES ETA WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO UKMET.
SEVERAL WAVES ON THE OCCLUSION ARE MOVING NW ABOUT 200 NM
OFFSHORE OF PANHANDLE WITH CENTERS AS LOW AS 982 MB.

THE OCCULSION IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE...AND THE UNMIXED SNOW EVENT THIS AFTERNOON
TONIGHT FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY SHOULD ONLY BE 5 INCHES OR LESS.
PLEASE NOTE THE ALL WATCHES FOR HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

ALL OTHER ZONES WILL BE TOO WARM EXCEPT FOR INLETS NEAR THE
COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE SUCH AS INSIDE TAKU INLET.  WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CANYON ISLAND...ANNEX CREEK AND SNETTISHAM GET
ALL UNMIXED SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT YET JUNEAU SHOULD BE MIXED PRECIP
AT THE SAME TIME.

.LONG RANGE...12Z MODELS NOT DOING ALL THAT BAD FEATURE WISE
TODAY. WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
PACIFIC MAINLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 NORTH WITH JET STREAM 120 TO 170
KT IN THE NEAR TERM. A DIGGING WAVE FINALLY BEGINS TO DISTURB THE
ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...HELPING TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS TO ABOUT 985 MB
ABOUT 50N/155W BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

BEFORE I MENTION MORE ABOUT THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY A WAVE TUESDAY
CARRIED ON THE GFS MODEL...THE BASIS WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAYS
FORECAST...IS MOVING TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL BE PLAYING THIS SYSTEM SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHEAST OF DISPLAYED SITUATION.  THIS BASED ON FACT THAT ONE OF
THE PERTUBATIONS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE WAS PREFERRED OVER THE
OPERATIONAL MEAN AND THIS IS THE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO CORRECT IN
THE NEAR TERM. THIS IT SEEMS IS ALREADY WELL HANDLED IN THE GRID
FORECASTS SO MAY NOT BE NEEDING TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS THERE.

THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY ON THE GFS DEEPENS TO THE MID 970S BUT WILL
NOT QUITE GO THAT DEEP ON THIS AT THIS TIME...MAY GO WITH THE 06Z
GFS DEPTHS AS THEY WERE SIMILAR ONLY ABOUT 6 MB NOT AS DEEP.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL BAND OF THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THE MARINE WATERS) AND THURSDAY (THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE) AND THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT (NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND MAYBE THE EASTERN GULF COAST). MODELS AT THIS TIME
EJECTING THE MAIN LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO VANCOUVER ISLAND
BY EARLY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE IS MOVED ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY... WHICH
SHOULD BRING IN SOME MORE COOLING OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE.  LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT LOW URGING
THE RIDGE THROUGH...WIND AND WEATHER FROM THIS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 19.
         WIND ADVISORIES...ZONES 22...23...27..28..29

MARINE...GALE WARNING...PLEASE NOTE AMDS THROUGH 1115 AM AST.
         OUTSIDE WATERS...ALL
         INSIDE WATERS...PKZ021-22-035-036.

JBT - BMB