Damaging Wind in Indiana, July 26, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
410 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A
ZONE OF WESTERLIES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AN ACTIVE
POTENTIALLY WET WX PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM. INITIAL EMBEDDED
S/W TO TRACK EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT LAKES TNGT. GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP TNGT DEVELOPING AN MCS OVER THE NRN PORTION
OF THE FA IN RESPONSE TO 30-35KT LO LVL JET. NAM IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE HOLDING BEST LO LVL CONVERGENCE AND INSTBY TO OUR
WEST AND THEN INTO OUR NW OVERNIGHT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BEST CAP ACRS THE SOUTH WITH GOOD ELEVATED INSTBY OF 1000-1500 J/KG
BY LATE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LKLY ACRS THE NW AND SLIGHT
CHC ACRS FAR SOUTH...FOLLOWING SOLN CLOSER TO NAM SOLN.

ON THURSDAY INSTABILITY AND LO LVL CONVERGENCE LOOKS BEST ACRS
THE NORTH WITH CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. HAVE TRENDED POPS FROM
MID 50S NORTH TO 30 ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND
OF POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMP WISE...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY A
LTL ABOVE MAV GUID VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CONSENSUS AT HPC FOR DAYS 3-7 WAS TO FOLLOW THE 00Z ECMWF AND TO
STAY AWAY FROM SOME OF THE DETAILS PROVIDED IN THE GFS. THE TREND
HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTH FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. SO FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PERIOD A LONG-WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY...WEAK FORCING
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE TEXAS COAST IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NNE...BECOMING MORE OF A REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS...AND
SHOULD AFFECT THE ILN CWA BY SATURDAY. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST WILL ALLOW HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...EXPECT MAINLY A LOW
THREAT OF DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AS MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY FORECAST. HAVE THUS KEPT POPS AT THE SLIGHT CHANCE LEVEL
AFTER SATURDAY.

&&

AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W. THE GFS
SHOWS A CLUSTER OF QPF SLIDING ACROSS THE FCST AREA 22Z-06Z...WHILE
THE RUC HAS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 03Z. LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...KDAY WILL BE AFFECTED 21Z-23Z...STAGGERED A BIT LATER FOR
THE OTHER SITES. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS.

THROUGH 06Z AND AFTER 10Z...WILL CARRY VCTS WITH TEMPO SH FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
456 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-270900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
456 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.