Hail in Illinois, June 19, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
115 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IN BOX AREA...WITH NERN MOST PAH FA
COUNTIES ON SRN-MOST PERIPHERY OF DAY1 SLGT RISK. VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW
LINE HAVING TROUBLE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHERE
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MINIMAL. 12Z MODELS KEEP PCPN JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF PAH FA...AND ALL MOS YIELDS IS A 10 POP MAX THERE WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE AM INCLINED TO REMOVE MENTION
THIS EVENING SAVE FOR THE 10 POP BUT WELL MONITOR THRU PRESS TIME
BEFORE FINAL CALL.

AFTER THAT MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING FROM THE WEST AND PUMPING IN
EVEN WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR IN 24-48 HOUR FRAME. MODELS OUTPUT QPF
MAINLY DIURNAL HOURS TUE WHICH REMAINS OUR PERSISTENCE STRATEGY
FORECAST. AFTER THAT THE INCREASING HEIGHTS/RIDGING SUPPRESSES PCPN
CHANCES MID WEEK AND HEAT/HUMIDITY TAKE OVER AS HIGHLIGHT WEATHER
FEATURE...WITH PEAKING WED PM HEAT INDICES NEAR 100. BY THURSDAY THE
HIGH BROADENS ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND WE ARE TREATED TO A
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DIP IN THE NRN STREAM ENERGY AFTER THAT TO ALLOW
FOR A COLD FROPA BY SAT...WHICH COULD COOL TEMPS/DEW POINTS TO
COMFORTABLE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND-INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WELL TAKE A
STEADY/CAUTIOUS APPROACH ON THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...BUT
BOTH DGEX/GFS SHOW SIMILAR TROFFING/COOLING BY THEN.

THE NAM REMAINS OUR NEAR TERM MODEL OF CHOICE FOR ITS CONVECTIVE
FIELD PERFORMANCE AND AS SUCH IS OUR PREFERRED MOS OUTPUT FOR
TEMPS/TDS. WE AGAIN BLEND ITS NOS INTO THE MEDIUM-LONG RANGE MEX MOS
AND COLLABORATIVE PIC...SIMILAR TO LAST COUPLE PACKAGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
449 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINIOS.
THIS AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOUNT
VERNON ILLINIOS TO ROCKPORT INDIANA. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE AS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE REGION. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PUSH
SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.