Hail in Georgia, May 13, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NAM12 AT 0Z HAS EXCELLENT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE STREAK ACROSS
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND
TODAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS CAPE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. THE SRN
PORTION OF THE FA COULD SEE SOME REMNANT SHRA OR ISO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COOL
VORTEX WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE NC/TN LINE THIS
AFTERNOON...MARGINAL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SPAWN A FEW SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BRING A WRAPPED COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AM...SLIPPING EAST BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON. I WILL
CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF LIKELY SHRA WITH A 20-30% CHC OF
EMBEDDED TSRA ON SUN. BEGINNING SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT-TERM...SCT SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
LARGE VORTEX. I WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NC
MTNS AND ADVERTISE PERIODS OF CHC POPS EAST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE COOL.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES FOR POPULATED AREAS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR A
FREEZE BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROST APPEARS
LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...UPSLOPE CLOUDS...AND
CONTINUOUS BREEZE. A FEW PEAKS AROUND 5000 FEET OR HIGHER WITHIN THE
NRN MTNS COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SN/RA
MIXED EARLY MON...HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO EVOLVE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...IN
THAT SCATTERED HIGH BASED STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY SW WIND THIS AFTERNOON. OF NOTE
IS THE RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE EAST SO KCLT GETS THE BKN
CEILING...AND A MENTION OF SHOWERS AFTER 20Z. ANOTHER VORT LOBE IS
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE UPPER LOW SATURDAY EVENING WHICH COULD HELP TO
TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
EASILY REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT...SO A VCSH IS INCLUDED AT
KAVL BEFORE THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT
ANOTHER BROKEN BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH BKN LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-130930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
525 AM EDT FRI MAY 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MONDAY...HIGH ELEVATION LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 32 TO 37 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...ELEVATIONS AROUND 5000
FEET OR HIGHER COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.