Flood and Strong Wind in Arkansas, November 30, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
527 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALREADY REPORTED AT KHRO AND KBPK...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS.
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF CYCLE. ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET
AND SNOW...BUT SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL ONLY SEE RAIN. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY FOR CLEAR SKIES FOR LATER ON IN THE PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO SITES KHRO AND KBPK...WITH FREEZING RAIN OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...WIND SENSORS HAVE FROZEN UP. CALM WIND CURRENTLY
REPORTED AT KHRO IS NOT CORRECT...AND WINDS WILL BE UNRELIABLE UNTIL
ICE CAN MELT OFF WIND SENSORS. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 339 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A DYNAMIC SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. ICY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S. IN THE SOUTHEAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. THIS ALL SURROUNDING A STORM SYSTEM
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL AFFECT NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF
ARKANSAS...WITH ICY PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW.

SNOW WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST AROUND HARRISON
AND JASPER. FROM MENA...TO CLARKSVILLE...MARSHALL AND HARDY...1 TO
PERHAPS 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL PULL DRIER
AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOTTING. WHILE
IT WILL TURN COLDER...AND THERE COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES...THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE MORNING TOWARD THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. OTHERWISE...DRY SLOT WILL TAKE OVER
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN GOING...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE WITH A FRONT BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. (46)

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ005-ARZ006-
ARZ007-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ021-ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ030-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ040.

&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
130 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
130 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WAS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 70S. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
TRIGGERED ALONG THE FRONT.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WERE
FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
THERE WAS ALSO WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BELOW FREEZING AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN WILL BECOME FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FROM YELLVILLE AND
JASPER WESTWARD TOWARD FAYETTEVILLE. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW AND
LOCALLY MORE IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING IN EFFECT.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MENA...RUSSELLVILLE AND
HARDY...LESSER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. ONE TO
TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST...WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES FROM TEXAS. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LOW WIND CHILL INDICES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. BY LATE TONIGHT...WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTH
WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A COUPLE
OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S. THOSE PLACES THAT GET SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD HAVE COLDER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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