Hail in Arkansas, August 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL AREAS AND
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH KHRO AND KBPK HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF BEING
AFFECTED. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF KLLQ MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VHR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO BE PREDOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. TERMINALS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1003 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
THE AREA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI. THE STORMS IN MISSOURI WILL BE MOST LIKELY
TO MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS AROUND 17Z. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD FOR THE NORTH. TEMPERATURE GRIDS NEEDED ADJUSTED BUT
LEFT MAX TEMPS AS IS. COLD FRONT IN MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
ARKANSAS TONIGHT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006/

AVIATION...
MID AND HI CLDS WL PERSIST OVR THE RGN THRU THE PD...WITH
CU/STRATOCU DVLPNG DURG THE LATE MORNING AND MOSTLY DSPTG AFT
SUNSET. WND WL BE WRLY/SWRLY AT LESS THAN 10 KT. GREATEST CHCS FOR
CONVECTIVE WX WILL BE OVR NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CIGS WL BE
AOA FL 040 EXC WHERE TSTMS DVLP. TSTM PROBS NOT VERY HI...SO OPTED
TO GO WTH CB CLD GROUP IN BPK AND HRO TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
CONVECTION LATER TDA. ACROSS THE N...CLDS WL THICKEN UP LATE
TONIGHT...AS CDFNT WL BEGIN APCHG AREA.

TERMINALS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE VERY HOT WEATHER TODAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE SAME WILL HOLD TODAY...AND
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM CLARKSVILLE/CLINTON/BATESVILLE
SOUTHWARD.

HIGH WILL RELOCATE TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS
FROM MISSOURI. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE STATE.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE 100 DEGREE PLUS TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. FARTHER SOUTH...IT APPEARS THE HEAT
WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT HANGS UP.

FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY ALONG THE EXITING FRONT. (46)

LONG TERM...SUNDAY  NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRACT ONCE AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA. FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY GET INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEFORE BEING HALTED
BY THE RIDGE. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OVER THE MID AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS STILL DON/T HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.

GFS MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE USED FOR TEMPERATURES. AS
FAR AS POPS GO...AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST.

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED. (57)

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

AVIATION...219

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1007 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1007 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. WITH HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL CLIMB
TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR THIS REASON...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TO CLINTON TO
BATESVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT
WEATHER DURING THE LAST WEEK OR SO...WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
OUT OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. STRONG STORMS THAT OCCUR COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MENA TO PINE BLUFF...TO
BRINKLEY.

ON SUNDAY..THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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