Damaging Wind in Arkansas, April 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229 AND A FEW MINOR
CHANGES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY
CATEGORY IN THE NORTH BUT KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE.
INCREASED QPF IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS SOME AREAS COULD
EASILY GET AN INCH OR TWO ESPECIALLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO INCREASED DEW POINTS TO FIT OBSERVED DATA.
ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR FRIDAY FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES FROM THE
REVISIONS MADE FOR TONIGHT.
&&
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.PREV DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE STATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAIN SHOW TO BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT /05Z/. LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS AND OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.

HAVE PREDOMINANT THUNDER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAY HAVE
TO EXTEND THIS TO AFTER NOON...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL COMPLEX MOVES
TOWARDS ARKANSAS.
&&
58

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. AREA OF LARGE
INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONVECTION FIRED UP
IN SOUTHERN AREAS DURING MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
WELL INTO THE 80S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THE ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MIGRATED FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN TEXAS. AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS INITIATING THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES NORTHEAST...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE PREFERRED GFSLR SHOWS A WEAK H5 TROUGH OVER
WEST TEXAS WITH A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE...SO WILL DO
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
225 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
FRIDAY WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WEST MEMPHIS TO TEXARKANA.

ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

38

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             WHITE HALL              34.28N 92.10W
04/21/2006  M0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

58