Tornado and Hail in Texas, April 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED...SPC HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231 IN EFFECT
THROUGH 14Z. SQUALL LINE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER. MAIN THRUST OF
THE LINE WILL BE E-SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. NEW ZONES
OUT SHORTLY. 43

ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HEADING TOWARD THE REGION. AT 08Z...A
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A SHV TO ACT TO JCT LINE. THE FRONT
IS PUSHING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CALDWELL TO COTULLA. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS MORNINGS STORMS WILL FIRE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON THE ACTUAL FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. GFS DRIES THINGS OUT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND THINK
IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING TREND. 250 MB
WINDS REMAIN DIVERGENT THROUGH 18Z AND A SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. PWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST...SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST.
THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD BECOME CONFLUENT BY 21Z AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS FOR THIS MORNING
ALL AREAS AND MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR THE COAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TO GET AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT. WILL EVALUATE
JUST BEFORE PRESS TIME AND DECIDE ON ADDING SEVERE WORDING TO THE
ZONES.

THE COOL FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD COOLER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS BUT DAYTIME HIGHS SAT/SUN WILL STILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE UNDER SUNNY/PT SUNNY SKIES.

NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WETTER. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
TEXAS AND STALL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH THE UPPER FLOW OVER TEXAS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TUES AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 60 87 61 87 / 20 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH)         84 60 87 63 87 / 60 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS)       80 69 82 69 82 / 60 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-211200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
828 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRAZOS, BURLESON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GRIMES, HARRIS, HOUSTON, LIBERTY, MADISON, MONTGOMERY, POLK, SAN
JACINTO, TRINITY, WALKER AND WALLER COUNTIES.

A STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TO THE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXISTS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AGAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA WILL BE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FRIDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1228 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             4 S SOMERVILLE          30.29N 96.53W
04/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0653 PM     HAIL             8 N BRENHAM             30.28N 96.40W
04/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0705 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            30.32N 96.35W
04/20/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0922 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYAN                   30.67N 96.37W
04/20/2006                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN IN AND AROUND BRYAN.

0932 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KURTEN                  30.79N 96.26W
04/20/2006                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF TORN OFF ON AUCTION BARN ON HWY 21 EAST NEAR KURTEN.

0932 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NNE BRYAN            30.80N 96.30W
04/20/2006                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BRAZOS COUNTY.

&&