Damaging Wind in Tennessee, April 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...PRETTY MUCH UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS AND SREF THAT THE MAIN EVENT OF WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A
VERY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL CULMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD
AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IS PROJECTED GENERALLY. EVENT
ENDS ABRUPTLY EARLY IN THE SECOND PERIOD AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH ARE CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SAT NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED.  WILL GENERALLY NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE 12Z GFS IDEA
OVERALL. MODELS NOW INDICATING WEAK BOUNDARY STAYS OVER THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
PRECIP...MAINLY NORTH AND CENTRAL.  WILL GENERALLY KEEP SOUTH DRY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH.  GFS HAS
BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY...SO
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE FOR ALL
DAY TUE.  WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO TUE NIGHT.  LATEST GFS TIMING
WOULD CLEAR PRECIP OUT LATE TUE OR EARLY TUE NIGHT...BUT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST BUMP DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW ON WED.
WILL GO DRY REMAINDER OF FORECAST...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS HAS MADE BIG
DEPARTURE FROM 06Z RUN AND NOW HAS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FRI OR
FRI NIGHT.  WILL JUST GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  59  76  54  81 / 100  50  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  72  54  76 / 100  60  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN  59  73  54  77 / 100  60  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  59  68  46  72 / 100  80  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHEROKEE...AND CLAY.

TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...
     CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...
     GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
     JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...
     MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST
     CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST
     MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...
     SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...UNION...WASHINGTON
     TN...AND WEST POLK.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...
     RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...AND WISE.

&&

LCM/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-211100-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
530 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006 /430 AM EDT FRI APR 21 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.  AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.  SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HAIL             WHITWELL                35.20N 85.52W
04/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       MARION             TN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY DEPT. REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL IN AND AROUND
            WHITWELL.

&&

GRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
509 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             SOUTH PITTSBURG         35.02N 85.71W
04/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       MARION             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTH PITTSBURG POLICE REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

CAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
606 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             1 S OAKDALE             35.97N 84.56W
04/21/2006  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             OLIVER SPRINGS          36.04N 84.34W
04/21/2006  E1.75 INCH       ROANE              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&