High Wind in Wyoming, March 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
205 PM MST SUN MAR 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...AT 20Z S/W PUSHING SOUTH THRU SE MT WITH PVA
ENTERING NW SD AND NE WY. SAT PICS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ASSCD
WITH PVA AND GLASGOW/BILLINGS RADAR SHOWING PLENTY OF SHOWERS
AROUND. WILL INC POPS TONIGHT ACRS NW SD/NE WY AND ESP NRN BLACK
HILLS. WITH STG UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATE MSTR WL GO LIKELY POPS
IN NRN HILLS TONIGHT WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL BY MON
AM.

AS FOR WINDS...AS S/W MVS SE WINDS SHLD REALLY BLOW ON BACKSIDE. AT
20Z 2WX AT 51 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 61 MPH. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO CONT SE THRU THIS EVENING. WINDS SHLD PICK UP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN S-CENT AND SWRN SD LATE THIS AFT AND THRU TONIGHT.

ON MON...LEFTOVR PCPN SHLD MV THRU S-CENT SD DURING AM HOURS. SHLD
BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON MON AFT.
TEMPS WL BE COOLER MONDAY...THO MAIN BODY OF COLD AIR WL SLIDE E
OF FA AND HIGHS SHLD STILL PUSH THE MID-UPPER 40S.

ANOTHER VIGOROUS S/W WL MV SE ON THE NW FLOW AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RW/SW FOR MON NITE AND TUES. AGAIN BEST CHC WILL BE IN NRN BLK
HLS WHERE AND INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDS.

ON WED UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO FA AND LKS LIKE
TEMPS WL PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS GETTING BACK INTO
THE 50S.

IN EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS
THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. BY
SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS DROP A STRONG TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA...WHICH PULLS THE HUDSON BAY LOW FURTHER WEST...AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER WEST INTO THE PACIFIC. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...THIS MEANS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE...WITH BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS KIND OF PATTERN
PROMOTES A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA
BEGINNING NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 30+ KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AFFECTING KRAP
VCNTY AND TWEB ROUTES 260 TO KBIS AND 315 TO KPIR THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. REMAINING TWEB ROUTES 258...259...AND 285 WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS FOR THE SAME
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 00Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 08Z. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTE 260 DROPPING TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z...AND CEILINGS AT KRAP AND KGCC DROPPING TO MVFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT
LEAST 16Z-18Z MONDAY.

&&

.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING THOUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
     PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
  ...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
     CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN CROOK
     COUNTY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
431 AM MST SUN MAR 6 2005

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-071400-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
431 AM MST (531 AM CST) SUN MAR 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AS WELL AS FOR EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN ADDITION...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL REACH THE EXTREME CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.