High Wind in Texas, November 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...
ALL SYSTEMS GO FOR HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. LATEST
NAM AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING NEARLY VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW
TO SWING SE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND THEN
BACK NE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW HAVE PRODUCED A
VERY STRONG 150+KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN NM
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY. REGIONAL OBS ALREADY SHOWING 110 KTS AT 500
MB ON THE WHITE SANDS PROFILER AND AT 1 AM CST THE RAWS STATION IN
THE GUADALUPE MTNS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 57 MPH GUSTING TO 100
MPH.

MOS GUIDANCE FOR LBB AND NAM/GFS OUTPUT APPLIED TO LOCAL HIGH WIND
CRITERIA SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SPLNS BY MID-LATE MORNING. BEST LOCATION FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF A LINE FROM APPROX MULESHOE TO
PLAINVIEW. THIS EXCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF THE SRN PANHANDLE WHERE THE
PROGGED 700 AND 850MB WINDS ARE LOWER. THUS WE HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
THE WIND ADVSY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TODAY...WITH A WIND ADVSY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. HAVE MADE SOME EDITS TO THE GRIDS TO RAMP UP THE WINDS QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE...AS THE MID-LVL WIND MAX WILL ALREADY BE OVER THE
AREA AND MIXING SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSPORT THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SFC. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...WE ARE
ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH THIS EVENT.

AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TO
THE SRN PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO
PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLES AND BROUGHT MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH...INTO THE NRN SPLNS. ONE CAVEAT FOR THE WIND SPEED FCST UP IN
THE SRN PANHANDLE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHOWERS TO ENHANCE
THE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC IN DOWNDRAFTS.

AS THE MID-LVL WIND MAX MOVES EAST EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
FROM W-E DURING THE AFTERNOON. AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING
WIND SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA BY AROUND 6 PM/0Z. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECT IN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS/FORECAST.

BY 12Z MONDAY THE POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FA UNDER
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND COOL PACIFIC RIDGING WILL
BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

MILD/DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED AS LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND
MAINTAINS BROAD/MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DEEPEN THE MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONCURRENTLY RISING OVER THE
PAC NORTHWEST...A COLD AIRMASS WITH ORIGINS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA
WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
LIKELY WILL PASS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS A 1035MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN/
CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS EARLIER FROPA
AND CONTINUED A COOLING TREND AS TEMPS AGAIN DROP TO BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES/HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS AND WITH SOUTHWARD
INFRINGING COLD FRONT/COLD AIR ADVECTION. AREAL EXTENT OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE REDUCED. WILL UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FA.
20 FOOT WINDS WILL EASILY MEET THE REQUIRED 20 MPH SUSTAINED
CRITERIA. MODELS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE DRY POCKET /DEWPOINTS
0 TO 10 DEGREES F/ ADVECTING OUT OF THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR WILL TRANSLATE SOUTH
IN A NARROW ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA /INCLUDING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT/ FOR THE REQUIRED 3 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  21  50  19 /  20   0   0   0
TULIA         52  24  51  20 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  26  53  23 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  26  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  27  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  27  54  23 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  35  53  29 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          63  32  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  36  58  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAILEY...COCHRAN...CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...
GARZA...HALE...HOCKLEY...LAMB...LUBBOCK...LYNN...MOTLEY...
TERRY...AND YOAKUM.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LYNN...TERRY...AND YOAKUM.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRISCOE...CASTRO...CHILDRESS...COTTLE...HALL...KENT...
KING...PARMER...STONEWALL...AND SWISHER.

&&

33/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR VALID TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
523 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

TXZ021>044-272130-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
523 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 AND 45
MPH OVER ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 50
AND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND BLOWING DUST THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL OFFICIALS...HOWEVER...
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH WINDS...BLOWING
DUST...AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.