Tornado in Missouri, November 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)

MANIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

CENTRAL PLAINS STORM SYSTEM EVOLVING AS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP AROUND 06Z ...BISECT (N-S) THE AREA
AROUND 12Z...AND EXIT THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY 21Z.

WIND SHEAR STILL THE SINGLE MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CAPE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO BE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MODEL 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES EXTREMELY HIGH (600+ M2/S2) ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT 06Z...BUT NO DETECTABLE TRIGGER
MECHANISM AT THAT TIME WITH THE FRONT SO FAR WEST. IF ANY STORMS DO
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AT THAT TIME... THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCREET AND
LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES... DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DECREASES AND SPEED SHEAR BECOMES
THE MAIN PLAYER. MODELS CRANKING OUT 60-70 KTS AT 850MB AND 135+ KTS
AT 250MB. TO MAKE MATTERS EVEN WORSE...THE RR QUAD (RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION) OF THE JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE OVER OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12
AND 18Z. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOW...INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD BE CRUISING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 50-60 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREDIBLE LOW TO MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL MAKE DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. IN THE DAY ONE
OUTLOOK SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MODERATE RISK OVER OUR TWO WESTERNMOST
COUNTIES AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. FEEL THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PULLED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULDNT BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE QUAD
STATE ON THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)

FOR DAY6 AND DAY7...PCPN CHCS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SCARCE AS THE
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROBABLY TAKE ON A GENERAL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PAH FCST
AREA. THE VARIABILITY OF THE MODELS AT THIS RANGE IN THE FCST MAKES
TIMING OF ANY S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW TOUGH TO PIN
DOWN. LEFT A VERY SMALL CHC OF PCPN IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PACKAGE AS A RESULT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

JAP/MF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1238 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281845-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
1238 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SEVERE. BECAUSE OF
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THESE WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ORGANIZE AS
THEY TRACK EAST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DURING
THE ENTIRE NIGHT...WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 900 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE WILL REMAIN SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE KENTUCKY PENNYRILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE
EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING AT 55 TO 65 MPH...SPOTTERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO BE IN PLACE AND ACTIVATED AS SOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE COUNTY UPSTREAM.

MTF