Damaging Wind in South Dakota, September 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
350 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SITUATION A BIT COMPLICATED WITH CONVECTN CONTG TO DCSR SERN CRNR OF
AREA THIS MRNG...BUT ISOLD TRW- TRYING TO SPRD INTO AREA ON WK
SHRTWV. WILL CONT THESE TRENDS THRU LATE MRNG WITH A CONTD THREAT OF
ISOLD TRW- AS REST OF ACTVTY CONTS TO DCRS...THEN CUT ALL FOR ERY
AFTN BEFORE REGENRATION LATE THIS AFTN AND MORE ACTVTY TNGT...MAINLY
SRN PART OF FCTS AREA. TEMPS WILL OF CURSE BE COOLR TDA XCP STILL
FAIRLY WARM S WHERE CDFNT HAS TRBL MOVG IN.

DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN CONVECTN LOCATION AND CVRG TRICKY NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT WILL CONT VARIED ACTVTY INTO THU. BY THEN HI AMPLITUDE WRN
TROF/ERN RDG PATTRN DVLPS...WE ARE CLOSE ENUD TO RDGNG THAT WX SHUD
BE MOSTLY DRY FROM FRI ON. HWVR WILL KEEP THE MENTN FOR SAT AS WE
HAD IT FOR WK SHRT WV COMNG UP DVLPNG RDG ALG WITH WAA.

WILL KEEP DRY FOR SUN AND MON AND MAY AS WELL TAKE A SHOT AT KEEONG
IT THAT WAY FOR NEW DAY 7 PRELIM GRIDS FOR NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE TEMPS
TRY TO WARM BACK TO FAIRLY WARM LEVELS. CUD OF COURSE BE MORE
CONVECTV ACTVTY IN THIS PATTRN AND IN FACT WHOLE FCST IS IN QSTN
THAT FAR AHD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONSISTNT ON DVLPG THIS PATTRN...BUT
CANADIAN FOR EXAMPL TRIES TO BRK RDG DOWN A LTL FASTR END OF PD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
925 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-061200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
925 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...AND SHOULD DECREASE BY NOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FIRE DANGER...
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO
PICKSTOWN. TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 35
MPH...AND RELATIVELY DRY VEGETATION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING
THE FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE SOUTHEAST OF A GREGORY TO MITCHELL TO BROOKINGS
LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM NORTHWEST OF A
LINE
FROM BROOKINGS TO WAGNER. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER 9 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.