Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, September 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVES OVER SOUTHWEST ND, CENTRAL MT,
SOUTHWEST ID AND A CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SHORT WAVES WERE MOVING NORTHEAST. CLOUD
BASES WERE ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET. RADAR SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MOVING NORTH AROUND 25 MPH. SHOWERS WERE
LIGHT ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT LIKELY REACHING
THE GROUND. HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH. NAM MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOWS BEST
INSTABILITIES WERE AT MID LEVELS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALOFT TO THE
NORTH. LOW LEVEL JET MAXIMUM WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO MN BY 06Z AND THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z. SFC TO
850 HPA CONVERGENCE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AT LOW TO MID
LEVELS. HOWEVER CIN WAS LOWEST OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS HIGHEST OVER THE NORTH.
WIND PROFILE SUGGEST TRAINING PRECIPITATION.

MESO ANALYSIS INDICATED LIS WERE THE LOWEST OVER THE ND SIDE OF THE
RED RIVER AND THE SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WAS HIGHEST OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COUPLE STORMS
HAVE POPPED UP OVER CENTRAL SD BUT APPEAR TO DECREASING. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH STORM TO THE SOUTH. SO WILL EMPHASIZE STORMS IN NORTHERN
ZONES WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. WILL CHECK ZONES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
243 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
243 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING WHEN THE STORMS WILL BE MORE SUPER CELLULAR IN NATURE. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR POOLING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SET THE STAGES FOR EXPLOSIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER SLIPS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY.

BERG/TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ND
1019 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

MNZ001>005-007>008-013>015-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038>039-049-052>054-050900-
CLAY-KITTSON-EAST MARSHALL-WEST MARSHALL-NORMAN-PENNINGTON-
EAST POLK-WEST POLK-RED LAKE-ROSEAU-WILKIN-BARNES-BENSON-CASS-
CAVALIER-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-NELSON-PEMBINA-RAMSEY-RANSOM-
RICHLAND-SARGENT-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1019 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
767 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN MINNESOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

KITTSON... MARSHALL... NORMAN...
PENNINGTON... POLK... RED LAKE...
ROSEAU...

IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

CLAY... WILKIN...

IN NORTH DAKOTA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

BENSON... CAVALIER... EDDY...
GRAND FORKS... NELSON... PEMBINA...
RAMSEY... TOWNER... WALSH...

IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA

BARNES... CASS... GRIGGS...
RANSOM... RICHLAND... SARGENT...
STEELE... TRAILL...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ARGYLE...BRECKENRIDGE...CANDO...
COOPERSTOWN...CROOKSTON...DEVILS LAKE...EAST GRAND FORKS...
ENDERLIN...FARGO...FINLEY...FORMAN...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...
GWINNER...HALLOCK...HALSTAD...LAKOTA...LANGDON...LISBON...
MADDOCK...MAYVILLE...MILNOR...MOORHEAD...NEW ROCKFORD...PEMBINA...
RED LAKE FALLS...ROSEAU...RUTLAND...THIEF RIVER FALLS...
VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1205 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 AM     HAIL             3 N LANGDON             48.81N 98.37W
09/05/2005  1.00 INCH        CAVALIER           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VGODON