Tornado and Hail in Kansas, September 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MANY AND INCLUDE AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. SOME MAY/WILL RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES OF KANSAS
WHERE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EXISTS AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
IS THE LOWEST FROM PAST FEW WEEKS OF RAIN.

AT 20Z OUR WHAT SEEMS TO BE DAILY LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM MCCOOK SOUTHWEST THROUGH COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS. THIS IS ALONG
AN INSTABILITY/WIND SHIFT AXIS. OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ALONG THE RIGHT
FRONT NOSE OF THE UPPER JET. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE
DRYLINE/WIND SHIFT LINE SHOULD RETREAT WEST AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BRINGING THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ON IT CLOSER TO THE CO/KS BORDER.

TONIGHT...LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER DIVERGENT PORTION OF UPPER JETLET MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHEST
POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. EXPECT
THE EASTERN COLORADO STUFF TO DIE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIN TEMPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT THE PAST FEW. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS RAIN COOLED AIR
COULD THROUGH A WRENCH IN THINGS. NONETHELESS EXPECT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW WITH AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING. FORECAST CHALLENGE HERE
WILL BE MANY. NOTHING REALLY APPARENT TO PUSH FRONT INTO THE AREA
WITH BEST CHANCE OF PASSAGE OVER THE NORTH. BROAD UPPER JET LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WHICH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE OVER OUR AREA BUT
THEN LIFT NORTH WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DYNAMICS TUESDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST...TAPERING
DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH POSITION OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS. WILL FOLLOW THE ETA/HPC
SCENARIO WHICH CALLS FOR HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE AREA WHERE SOME HINTS OF JET DIVERGENCE MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS A PIECE OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GFS MAINTAINS
BETTER JET DYNAMICS FURTHER NORTH...HENCE LOWER POPS/QPF. CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL END QUITE QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH LIFT OR LOW LEVEL FOCUS
SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR NOW. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS (FRIDAY-MONDAY)

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES
LITTLE. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRM
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WEIGHTED MEX
GUIDANCE AS 850 TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ABOVE NORMAL SO WILL TWEAK THESE UP AS WELL. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THINGS PRETTY WELL UNDER CONTROL SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

CANT RULE OUT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE AREA. VARIOUS
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH FROM THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SO HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE HOWEVER SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL GREAT.
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1059 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061330-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1159 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2005 /1059 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO THIS MORNING WERE PRODUCING
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT)
AS THEY ENCOUNTER RICH MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY OVER FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ON A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE FROM BREWSTER TO TRIBUNE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
IN BOTH AREAS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70
MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST...AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALSO...DUE TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT).

MCGUIRE/BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
403 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2005

KSZ002-004-014>016-028>029-033-NEZ080>081-060500-
DECATUR-GOVE-GRAHAM-LOGAN-NORTON-RAWLINS-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-
HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
403 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
769 IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS

DECATUR...GOVE...GRAHAM...
LOGAN...NORTON...RAWLINS...
SHERIDAN...THOMAS...

IN NEBRASKA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

HITCHCOCK...RED WILLOW...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ATWOOD...COLBY...HILL CITY...
HOXIE...MCCOOK...NORTON...OAKLEY...OBERLIN...QUINTER AND TRENTON.