Lightning Strike in South Carolina, June 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
UPDATE TO CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND FOG MENTION IN THE ZFP.

SATELLITE SHOWING A SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY WITH CLOUDS OVER THE
MTNS AND RESIDUAL SEA BREEZE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE MIDLANDS. 12Z
RUN OF NAM DEVELOPS A WEAK TROF OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BY 21Z.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE TROF MAY ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AREA OF POSSIBLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. CONVECTION INITIATION MAY
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS ALONG WITH THE MTN
PEAKS. ONCE CONVECTION RESULTS STORMS SHOULD CREEP NORTHWARD AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MAXES AND DWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A WARM COLUMN CAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES SINCE MON...WILL MONITOR DURING TODAY/S ACTIVITY FOR
POSSIBLE FF.

TEMPS WARMING QUICKER THAN GOING FORECAST...BASED ON LATEST LAPS
WILL INCREASE TEMPS EAST OF THE MTNS BY A CLICK OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE SKY AND WIND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 641 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
VISIBILITIES HAVE CRASHED IN NC FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS
WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. HAVE POSTED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IN AFFECTED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 526 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN THE WATCH AREA. COUNTY
OFFICIALS REPORT NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
PLAN ON CANCELING THE FFA AROUND 6 AM. WILL CHANGE PATCHY FOG
WORDING TO PATCHY DENSE IN THE NRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WHERE
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT PRESENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 314 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AT THIS HOUR OVER THE LOWER
PIEDMONT AND TRAIN TOWARD THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. THE
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP S TO SE FLOW PRODUCING SOME
UPSLOPE IN THAT REGION...ALBEIT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS. SOME
CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT AS WELL AND WEAK TROUGHINESS CONTINUES IN
THE UPPER FLOW JUST TO THE WEST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.

MODEL INSTABILITY IS INDICATED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO YESTERDAY. TRIGGERING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEAK UPSLOPE
AND BOUNDARIES DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EARLY...WITH OUTFLOWS
LIKELY DRIVING POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A MOISTURE RESURGENCE
IS APPARENT THU INTO FRI AS SOUTHEAST FLOW IMPROVES AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. A PERSISTENT DIURNAL TREND OF HIGH CHC TO
LOW LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE IS INDICATED.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. WITH DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW IN PLACE...DIURNAL PM
CHANCES ARE INDICATED THROUGHOUT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS BUILDING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE RIDGE TO
OUR WEST. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE AT
PRESENT.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPSTATE/NE GA/WRN
NC SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND
ELEVATED CAPE...FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
AND OUT OF MOST TAF SITES. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY KCLT MAY ESCAPE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE IN THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...
LEAVING BEHIND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WHICH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL
MIDDLE PART OF AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A PROBLEM
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING...SO ALL SITES GET AN MVFR CEILING...
WHICH SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AROUND MIDDAY. WILL HANDLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH A VCTS AGAIN.  LIKE THIS PAST
EVENING...CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

HYDROLOGY...
WILL MAINTAIN FFA IN EXISTING AREAS WITH 3 HR FFG VALUES AT OR
BELOW 2 INCHES IN SEVERAL AFFECTED COUNTIES AND COLD IR TOPS
INDICATED CONT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ053>055-064>067 UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
909 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-091315-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
909 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...AND MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL
AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS COULD BE NEEDED LATE TODAY IF ISOLATED FLOODING DEVELOPS
UNDER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

NED