Flash Flooding and Hail in Missouri, June 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
823 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
POPPED UP. WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...AND THE OUT FLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS IN
NEBRASKA/IOWA HAS...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS POPPED OF A LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HORUS ACROSS. EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT HELPED START THESE STORMS SHOULD PUSH
THEM OF THE MOISTURE AXIS LATTER THIS MORNING...LIMITING THEIR LIFE
SPAN. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH
INCLUDED BRING CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS CITY.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...CONVECTION AS
FAR SOUTH AS I-70 SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING ITSELF.

CUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
335 AM WED...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PART OF COUNTRY.

WATCHING STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. BOTH 00Z
AND 06Z RUN OF NAM WANTS TO BRING THESE STORMS SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DROP IT SOUTH AS
A COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE SOUTH IN AXIS
OF BETTER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE SITTING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. NAM 800 MB THETA E LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH
MOISTURE THAT IS APPARENT ON 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE IMAGE. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOWING BEST MOISTURE POOLED IN EXTREME EASTERN
KANSAS AT THIS TIME. IF THIS COMPLEX DOES DIVE SOUTH THROUGH AREA
TODAY...MAY SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. TRUE FRONT HOWEVER WILL
STILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO MAKES FOR A COMPLEX
SITUATION AS TO WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
OCCURRING TONIGHT. WITH SUCH QUESTION MARKS...WILL LEAVE POPS IN
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

TRUE FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...REMAINING ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIKELY BE FACTORS ON WHERE STRONGEST
CONVECTION OCCURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THESE WAVES IS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO WILL KEEP WITH MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTHWEST UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH STRONG RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OVER
THE EAST COAST...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION STRONGER STORMS MAY STAY
OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS...SURFACE FRONT MAY BE DRAGGED A LITTLE
FURTHER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF ANOTHER DECENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  WITH POSSIBILITY OF STORM COMPLEX AND QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...WILL LOWER HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...AND KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
558 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-
SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
558 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS MAY ALSO
BE CLIPPED BY THESE STORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

A BOUNDARY MAY RESULT FROM THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...THAT MAY AFFECT
AREAS SOUTH OF 50 HIGHWAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH
MAY ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. AGAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...SO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN KANSAS FROM THURSDAY ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES
MOVE OVER THE REGION.

FLOODING RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FACT
THAT MANY AREAS HAVE GROUND THAT IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
748 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

MOZ002-012-081345-
ANDREW-NODAWAY-
748 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN NODAWAY AND NORTHWESTERN
ANDREW COUNTIES...

AT 746 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PICKERING TO
ROSENDALE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF MARYVILLE
TO 19 MILES SOUTH OF MARYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR GUILFORD BY 800 AM CDT.
  NEAR RAVENWOOD BY 810 AM CDT.

UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

STOFLET

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
808 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

MOZ002>004-081345-
GENTRY-NODAWAY-WORTH-
808 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN NODAWAY...NORTHWESTERN
GENTRY AND WORTH COUNTIES...

AT 807 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHERIDAN TO
CONCEPTION...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF BEDFORD
IA TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR SHERIDAN BY 815 AM CDT.
  NEAR ALBANY BY 830 AM CDT.
  NEAR WORTH BY 835 AM CDT.

UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

STOFLET