Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, June 8, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.UPDATE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM SRN MN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
LOWER MI. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THE BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER WI HAS NOW BECOME A
SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY. THIS
CONVECTION IS SHOWING A MOVEMENT TO THE ENE. THIS MOVEMENT WOULD BE
EXPECTED AS THE WAVE HELPING TO FIRE THE CONVECTION RIDES ALONG THE
FRONT. 850-300 MB THICKNESSES ALSO SUPPORT THE ENE MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE ENE MOVEMENT...THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WOULD
LIKELY JUST MISS OUR ENTIRE CWFA TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND AND
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE HAVE DROPPED POPS
OVER THE NRN SECTION OF THE CWFA TO 40 PCT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA...DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
EARLIER SFC BASED CONVECTION THAT TRIED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM
WI FIZZLED OUT BEFORE IT MADE IT TO THE ERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE CWFA SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ALL OF THE ACTION REMAINING
JUST NORTH AND WELL WEST OF THE CWFA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE
A RIBBON OF HIGHER DEW POINTS ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WSW. WITH THIS RIBBON OF HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING
IN...ELEVATED LI/S FALL TO AS LOW AS -6 LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS
ADVECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THEREFORE WE HAVE LEFT THE 30 PCT CHC OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA. MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY TONIGHT.

DEW POINTS AT THE SFC ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S AT THIS HOUR WITH A FEW
ISOLATED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH THESE HIGHER DEW
POINTS...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

NJJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
633 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-081000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
633 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...AS STORMS FIRE TO OUR
WEST THIS EVENING AND TRY TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 600 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS AS THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF HEAT AND MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE FOR UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
SPOTTERS BEING NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DUKE