Damaging Wind in South Carolina, July 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH CAPES BTWN 2000-3000 J/KG BY
EARLY AFTN. BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIES WITH A COLD FRONT OVER
CNTRL TN AND WITH A LEE TROF ACROSS THE W-CNTRL CAROLINAS. THERE IS
WEAK DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING.
STRAIGHT- LINE WIND GUSTS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
THREAT WITH STORMS THRU THIS EVE. THERE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAIN AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING
CELLS OCCUR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS THRU THIS EVE WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OVERNIGHT AND SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FRONT PUSHES S OF AREA LATE SAT. EXPECT SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION
SUN-MON AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE UPSLOPE TOWARD THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TUE WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW...AND UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM A ZONAL PATTERN AS
AN UPPER TROF STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER E US. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO FROM CWA FROM THE NW WED AND STALLS
OVER THE AREA...THEN A SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W ON THU
WHILE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE W. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU AND FRI BUT
PLAN TO LIMIT POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS BLOWING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CELLS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY ATTM...AROUND 4 KNOTS. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT STORMS WILL DO ONCE THEY FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. YESTERDAYS CONVECTION TENDED TO DIMINISH ONCE IT
MOVED INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A VCTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
AVL...WHERE THE TEMPO GROUP WAS RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS
FOR CONVECTION...HOPEFULLY WITH A 2 HOUR LEAD TIME...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LINE OF CONVECTION OVER EAST TENNESSEE MAY THREATEN THE
WESTERN-MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY-TO-MID EVENING HOURS...SO
RETAINED VCTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG SCENARIO SAT
MORNING VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF FRI MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-021000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. PLEASE SEE CAESPSGSP FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ034-035-055-056-067>070-SCZ006>008-010-012-013-
012100-
ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE SC-CLEVELAND-
FRANKLIN GA-GASTON-GREATER GREENVILLE-HART-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-
RUTHERFORD-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-UNION SC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...
GREENVILLE...HARTWELL...HICKORY...LAURENS...LINCOLNTON...MORGANTON...
RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...SPARTANBURG...TOCCOA...UNION
402 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT...

AT 3:53 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS...
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE
TO PUSH TOWARD THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS...SOME OF THEM WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW LYMAN              34.97N 82.15W
07/01/2005                   SPARTANBURG        SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ONE LARGE TREE DOWN ON 2 HOUSES...ANOTHER PINE TREE ALSO
            DOWN.

0400 PM     HAIL             2 NW LYMAN              34.97N 82.15W
07/01/2005  0.75 INCH        SPARTANBURG        SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LASTED FOR SHORT DURATION...ON LAKEFRONT CIRCLE NEAR HWY
            357.

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E GREER               34.94N 82.21W
07/01/2005                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN GREER.

&&

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-012200-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-CABARRUS-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-
DAVIE-ELBERT-GASTON-GREENWOOD-IREDELL-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-
MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-UNION NC-UNION SC-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...CHARLOTTE...CHESTER...
CONCORD...ELBERTON...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...GREENWOOD...HICKORY...
LAURENS...LINCOLNTON...MOCKSVILLE...MONROE...ROCK HILL...SALISBURY...
SHELBY...STATESVILLE...UNION
502 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT...

AT 455 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST AT 15 MPH.
AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE...
CHARLOTTE METRO...AND THE INTERSTATE 85 AND 77 CORRIDORS...SOME OF
THEM WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ010-017-NCZ062-063-012215-
HABERSHAM-MACON NC-RABUN-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...FRANKLIN
510 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...

AT 505 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND INTO
WESTERN MACON COUNTY...AND DRIFTING EAST AT 15 MPH. LOCALES
FROM AROUND FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CLAYTON...AND CLARKESVILLE...
AND NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FREQUENT AND
INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODRUFF                34.74N 82.03W
07/01/2005                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            911 REPORTED NUMBER OF TREES BLOWN DOWN AROUND
            TOWN...SOME ON HOUSES. MEDIA REPORTED AWNING AND TREES
            DOWN OLD SWITZER ROAD AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE FOUNTAIN INN       34.67N 82.18W
07/01/2005                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            911 RELAYED REPORT OF ROOF DAMAGED BY WIND. INITIALLY
            REPORTED AS TORNADO. WATER POURING INTO HOME. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY DOWNBURST SIGNATURE ON RADAR.

&&

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-012345-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...
MONROE...ROCK HILL
537 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE CHARLOTTE
METROPOLITAN AREA...

CLUSTERS AND LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MECKLENBURG AND
NEIGHBORING COUNTIES IN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY COULD
CAUSE THE RAPID RISE OF WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS... STREAMS... AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AT ABOUT 5
MPH CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... LIGHTNING... AND POSSIBLY GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH 700 PM.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS ROADS THAT ARE COVERED WITH WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LGL