Flood in Florida, July 1 to 31, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
913 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW MOVING OFF THE FL E COAST...WITH A LEFT OVER
AREA OF RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING SE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS REMAIN FARTHER WEST...INCLUDING SEVERAL
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF TAMPA BAY...LIKELY PERSISTING ON OLD
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF SHOULD LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...AND WERE
NOW SEEING VERY LIMITED NEW SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE WEST OF
TAMPA BAY. OVERALL...POPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE EARLY OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS LATER OVERNIGHT WE MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...AS SHEARED SHORT WAVE
ENERGY FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
APPROACHES. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS...BASICALLY WILL HAVE 30 POPS TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND 20 POPS
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID 70S MOST
SPOTS.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10KT WITH SEAS AOB 2FT
OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT CWF.

NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-301430-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TODAY.  MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.  MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STANDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS WHERE
THE DEPTH OF THE WATER IS UNKNOWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

ON FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE DEEP MOISTURE TO BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC