Debris Flow in Puerto Rico, June 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
645 AM AST FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER TROUGHING
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARDS NNW INTO THE W CENTRAL
ATLC...DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA...AND INTERACTS WITH A
VERY MOIST SE FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT HAS ACTED TO SHEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TRYING TO SHIFT NW INTO THE LOCAL AREA...BUT UPPER SPEED DIVERGENCE
HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CELLS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE
ACROSS THE OPEN WATER S THROUGH SE OF ST CROIX. TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS LLVL TROUGH ACROSS E PORTIONS OF OUR AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW
AT 10 MPH...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE ON ITS
E SIDE SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY DIG SOUTHWARD TO JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE SAME TIME TO CREATE EXPLOSIVELY
UNSTABLE MID TO UPPER CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL THEREFORE LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES. GFS AGAIN IS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW...THIS
TIME JUST TO THE S AND SW OF P.R. TONIGHT MOVING WNW ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE...AND FOCUSING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COPIOUS RAINFALL ON THE
E SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING EN MASS ACROSS P.R. GIVEN THAT THIS BRIEF
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE LLVL TROUGH AXIS AND UNDERNEATH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...BUT REGARDLESS...ITCZ
MOISTURE WILL TRAIL THE LLVL TROUGH INTO THE E CARIB AND SOME OF
THAT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT NEAR OR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE MOST EXPLOSIVE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...INSTABILITY FROM THE TUTT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING...AND A SE FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BOTH CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE SE FLOW
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LLVL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. I HAVE CHOSEN TO GO A BIT CAUTIOUS WITH THIS AND KEPT MAXIMUM
WINDS AT 22 KNOTS AND MAX SEAS AT 6 FEET. OUTSIDE OF THIS...MAIN
THREAT TO MARINERS WILL BE INTENSE AND/OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER
REALIZED IN SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS...WHICH ARE
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN AND ATLC WATERS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

T.S. ARLENE MOVING NNW ACROSS FAR W TIP OF CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN INTO THE SE GULFMEX...THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
N GULF COAST BETWEEN MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME NW FLORIDA BY
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEPEST TSTORMS HAVE REMAINED
WELL TO THE NE AND REMOVED FROM CENTER OF ARLENE...BUT OVERNIGHT...
TSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO CENTRAL CIRCULATION. SQUALLY
WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT S FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS TODAY. ARLENE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE
GULF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS UPPER SHEAR RELAXES AND THE CENTER
PASSES OVER A VERY LARGE WARM CORE RING DIRECTLY IN ITS FORECAST
PATH. LARGE LLVL CIRCULATION OF ARLENE INDIRECTLY AFFECTING THE
LOCAL STEERING FLOW AND HELPING TO SET UP SE FLOW OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  85  76  87  76 /  70  80  80  60
STT  85  79  87  80 /  80  80  80  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

&&

70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-111000-
600 AM AST FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AND AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LOT OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD TODAY TO BRING US A LOT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND ROADS...AS WELL AS
OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN DOMAIN. EXPECT NORMAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ACTIVITY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. NO SIGN
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS IN THE FORECAST.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-111000-
600 AM AST FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LOT OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD TODAY TO
BRING US A LOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF GUTS...SMALL
STREAMS AND ROADS...AS WELL AS OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
EXPECT A DRIER AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IF POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NO SIGN OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
IN THE FORECAST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.