Tropical Storm in Florida, June 10 to 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCUTAN
CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SHORTLY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES TO BE SHOVED OUT OF THE WAY AS ARLENE
APPROACHES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF
MOBILE SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST WILL...AS USUAL..BE BASED ON FORECAST TRACK
OF ARLENE. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THESE ARE ON THE OUTER
FRINGES OF ARLENE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS
ARLENE MOVES AWAY. THE HPC QPF GRIDS WERE USED WITH SOME MINOR
CHANGES...MAINLY HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE STARTED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AND WILL ALSO HAVE
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALL THE INLAND COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ARLENE MOVES NORTHWARD. BY MID WEEK...THE AREA WILL
BE BACK TO A MORE NORMAL PATTERN...WARM AND MUGGY WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...FIRST PART OF FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE PASSAGE OF TS ARLENE. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AROUND DAWN SATURDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE OUT WITH THIS PACKAGE.  SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. DONT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF EXTENDED SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
ALSO. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE INCORPERATED INTO THE TROPICAL
STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE WINDY ON SATURDAY...BUT WET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  71  81  73 /  80  80  90  70
PENSACOLA   84  73  82  74 /  80  80  90  70
DESTIN      84  75  81  76 /  80  80  90  70
EVERGREEN   83  70  81  72 /  70  70  90  80
WAYNESBORO  86  70  81  72 /  60  60  80  70
CAMDEN      84  69  81  72 /  70  70  80  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALZ061>064-GMZ630-650-670
     FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING ALZ051>064.
     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALZ051>060.
FL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FLZ001>006-GMZ655-675
     FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FLZ001>006
MS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH MSZ067-075-076-078-079
     FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING MSZ067-075-076-078-079

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-101130-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1135 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TONIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARLENE
APPROACHES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF LATER TONIGHT. ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COASTAL FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINS LIKELY. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY TO JUST
BELOW GALE FORCE. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE AREA SATURDAY...COASTAL FLOOD
AND HEAVY RAINS WOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
SUNDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...REFER
TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.  WIND
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY TO ABOVE GALE FORCE APPROACHING
STORM FORCE. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED OVER THE WEEKEND.