Hail in Oklahoma, September 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
256 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS MID AFTERNOON. STILL VERY LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT....BUT MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS
FAR.  DEVELOPMENT IN CWA STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THEN EARLY EVENING HOURS
FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL OF NORTH
LOUISIANA. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LIKELY WITH GOOD
HEATING ALL AFTERNOON AND DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
CURRENTLY. POTENTIAL SEVERE CRITERIA FOR WIND AND HAIL REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN CARRYING INTO THE NIGHT AND ACROSS CWA WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A GOOD PRE FRONTAL TROUGH.  ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT
LINGER ANYWHERE...SO FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.  OVERNIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING...WITH THUNDERSTORM
CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION GOOD
AT LOWER LEVELS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF
AREA...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF SEPTEMBER SUNSHINE THE HIGHS SHOULD
BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES COOLER THIS TIME TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT MAY NOT LAY
DOWN UNTIL RIGHT AT DAWN FRIDAY MORNING. SO...RADIATION COOLING
COULD BE BETTER...BUT STILL LOOKING AT BELOW SEASONAL LOWS FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. SLIGHT BIT OF RIDGING INTO THE WEEKEND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO SEASONAL RANGES FOR
WEEKEND.  PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY WITH A SHORT
WAVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...AND GFS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
PERHAPS PUSHING IN OFF THE GULF. EXPECT A DRY START TO THE WORK
WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF NEXT COOL FRONT DUE IN AROUND
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  77  54  83 /  60  20   0   0
MLU  64  75  51  81 /  60  20   0   0
DEQ  59  76  47  81 /  60  10   0   0
TXK  61  76  51  81 /  60  10   0   0
ELD  60  74  48  82 /  60  10   0   0
TYR  65  79  55  83 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  64  78  54  83 /  60  20   0   0
LFK  67  79  57  85 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-291100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTRY OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING.  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TONIGHT.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT LATER
TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUST WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...THE SEVERITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PRESS INTO EAST CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

13/24