Wildfire in California, September 28 to 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
MAINLY BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS...WEAKENING THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SUNDAY. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. IT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

OFFSHORE FLOW ABOUT 10-11 MB THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THE USUAL PLACES...THROUGH AND BELOW CAJON PASS AND BELOW THE SANTA
ANA MOUNTAINS. OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THU MORNING BUT
COULD BRIEFLY BE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FORECAST TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY THU AND TURN TO WEST BY AFTERNOON.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF POINT CONCEPTION LATE
THU AND MOVE OVER SOCAL FRI AND SAT. A RIDGE MOVES OVER SOCAL SUN. A
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUN THROUGH MON WITH
DECREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
INCREASES SLIGHTLY TUE AND WED. SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THU. MESO ETA SHOW WEAK EDDY DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MARINE LAYER TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WITH SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD INCREASE MORE AND MOVE FARTHER INLAND IN THE COASTAL AREAS
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FRI...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART.

&&

.AVIATION...OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE MORNING NKX SOUNDING SHOWS NNE WINDS BELOW
5K FT OF 10 TO 15 KT. THIS HAS PREVENTED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE
AND ORANGE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM THROUGH 2 PM TODAY FOR CAZ048-CAZ055-
CAZ056-CAZ057-CAZ058.

&&

PUBLIC...WHITLOW
AVIATION...GONSALVES

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

CAZ048-055-056-057-058-282300-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
400 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...
HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NOTE...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW INCORPORATES THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX THAT WAS ISSUED SEPARATELY IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IF IT EXCEEDS THE LOW CATEGORY IN THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED DAILY AT 4 AM AND 4 PM OR AS
NEEDED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30.

MARTIN

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